IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/founma/v11y2019i1p177-186n15.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investor Sentiment and Speculative Bond Yield Spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Turkmen Muldur Gozde

    (Science and Technology University, Faculty of Business Administration, Adana, Turkey)

  • Kandir Serkan Yılmaz

    (Cukurova University, Faculty of Business Administration, Adana, Turkey)

  • Onal Yıldırım Beyazıt

    (Cukurova University, Faculty of Business Administration, Adana, Turkey)

Abstract

The valuation of risky debt is central to theoretical and empirical work in corporate finance. Although much is known on the returns and valuation of bonds, there is hardly a consensus on the risk components of the yield spreads. This article aims to investigate the effect of investor sentiment as a systematic risk factor on speculative bond yield spreads. After applying correlation analysis to determine the strength of linear association between these two variables, a vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis and impulse response tests are used to examine the relationship between these two variables. The sample period extends from January 1997 to August 2014. In the VAR models, speculative bond spreads and consumer confidence index are used as endogenous variables. The results show that sentiment covaries with the yield spread and have a negative effect on them. The spread level of the previous period seems to be a statistically significant determinant of the current period sentiment. Empirical findings imply that investor sentiment is a systematic risk factor in risky bond markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Turkmen Muldur Gozde & Kandir Serkan Yılmaz & Onal Yıldırım Beyazıt, 2019. "Investor Sentiment and Speculative Bond Yield Spreads," Foundations of Management, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 177-186, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:founma:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:177-186:n:15
    DOI: 10.2478/fman-2019-0015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/fman-2019-0015
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/fman-2019-0015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    2. Subhankar Nayak, 2010. "Investor Sentiment and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(2), pages 59-80, September.
    3. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    4. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    5. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    6. Neal, Robert & Wheatley, Simon M., 1998. "Do Measures of Investor Sentiment Predict Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 523-547, December.
    7. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    8. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. "Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
    9. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    10. Delianedis, Gordon & Geske, Robert, 2001. "The Components of Corporate Credit Spreads: Default, Recovery, Tax, Jumps, Liquidity, and Market Factors," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt32x284q3, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    11. Jing-Zhi Huang & Ming Huang, 2012. "How Much of the Corporate-Treasury Yield Spread Is Due to Credit Risk?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 153-202.
    12. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    13. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2012. "Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-section of Stocks," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 57-87.
    14. Laborda, Ricardo & Olmo, Jose, 2014. "Investor sentiment and bond risk premia," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 206-233.
    15. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    16. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    17. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    18. Corredor, Pilar & Ferrer, Elena & Santamaria, Rafael, 2015. "Sentiment-prone investors and volatility dynamics between spot and futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 180-196.
    19. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
    20. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    21. Liu, Sheen & Shi, Jian & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2009. "The determinants of corporate bond yields," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 85-109, February.
    22. Wang, Yaw-Huei & Keswani, Aneel & Taylor, Stephen J., 2006. "The relationships between sentiment, returns and volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-123.
    23. Kwan, Simon H., 1996. "Firm-specific information and the correlation between individual stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 63-80, January.
    24. Spyros Spyrou, 2013. "Investor sentiment and yield spread determinants: evidence from European markets," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(6), pages 739-762, October.
    25. Lars Norden & Martin Weber, 2009. "The Co†movement of Credit Default Swap, Bond and Stock Markets: an Empirical Analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 529-562, June.
    26. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    27. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    28. Chung, San-Lin & Hung, Chi-Hsiou & Yeh, Chung-Ying, 2012. "When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-240.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Yulin, 2021. "Investor sentiment and sovereign bonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    3. Franke, Benedikt & Müller, Sebastian & Müller, Sonja, 2017. "The q-factors and expected bond returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 19-35.
    4. Brian BARNARD, 2017. "Rating Migration and Bond Valuation: Decomposing Rating Migration Matrices from Market Data via Default Probability Term Structures," Expert Journal of Finance, Sprint Investify, vol. 5(1), pages 49-72.
    5. Kumari, Jyoti, 2019. "Investor sentiment and stock market liquidity: Evidence from an emerging economy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 166-180.
    6. Samir Kadiric & Arthur Korus, 2019. "The effects of Brexit on credit spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone corporate bond markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 65-102, March.
    7. Corredor, Pilar & Ferrer, Elena & Santamaria, Rafael, 2013. "Investor sentiment effect in stock markets: Stock characteristics or country-specific factors?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 572-591.
    8. Brian BARNARD, 2017. "Rating Migration and Bond Valuation: Decomposing Rating Migration Matrices from Market Data via Default Probability Term Structures," Expert Journal of Finance, Sprint Investify, vol. 5, pages 49-72.
    9. Shen, Junyan & Yu, Jianfeng & Zhao, Shen, 2017. "Investor sentiment and economic forces," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-21.
    10. Yawen Hudson & Christopher J. Green, 2013. "Born in the USA? Contagious investor sentiment and UK equity returns," Discussion Paper Series 2013_13, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Nov 2013.
    11. Mariano González-Sánchez & M. Encina Morales de Vega, 2021. "Influence of Bloomberg’s Investor Sentiment Index: Evidence from European Union Financial Sector," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, February.
    12. Wang, Wenzhao & Duxbury, Darren, 2021. "Institutional investor sentiment and the mean-variance relationship: Global evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 415-441.
    13. Carla Fernandes & Paulo M. Gama & Elisabete Vieira, 2016. "Does local and Euro area sentiment matter for sovereign debt markets? Evidence from a bailout country," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(9), pages 816-834, February.
    14. Yang, Yan & Copeland, Laurence, 2014. "The Effects of Sentiment on Market Return and Volatility and The Cross-Sectional Risk Premium of Sentiment-affected Volatility," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2014/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Ephraim Clark & Selima Baccar, 2018. "Modelling credit spreads with time volatility, skewness, and kurtosis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 431-461, March.
    16. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Firm-specific investor sentiment and daily stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    17. Bethke, Sebastian & Gehde-Trapp, Monika & Kempf, Alexander, 2015. "Investor sentiment, flight-to-quality, and corporate bond comovement," CFR Working Papers 13-06 [rev.3], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    18. Samir Kadiric & Arthur Korus, 2018. "Effects of Brexit on Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone Corporate Bond Markets," EIIW Discussion paper disbei251, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    19. Bethke, Sebastian & Gehde-Trapp, Monika & Kempf, Alexander, 2017. "Investor sentiment, flight-to-quality, and corporate bond comovement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 112-132.
    20. Aissia, Dorsaf Ben, 2016. "Home and foreign investor sentiment and the stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 71-77.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:founma:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:177-186:n:15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.