IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/foeste/v16y2016i2p119-134n9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Analysis of Conditional Dependencies of Covariance Matrices for Economic Processes in Selected EU Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Janiga-Ćmiel Anna

    (University of Economics in Katowice, Faculty of Management, Department of Statistics, Econometrics and Mathematics, 1 Maja 50, 40-287 Katowice, Poland)

Abstract

The paper looks at the issues related to the research on and assessment of the contagion effect. Based on several examinations of two selected EU countries, Poland paired with one of the EU member states; it presents the interaction between their economic development. A DCC-GARCH model constructed for the purpose of the study was used to generate a covariance matrix Ht, which enabled the calculation of correlation matrices Rt. The resulting variance vectors were used to present a linear correlation model on which a further analysis of the contagion effect was based. The aim of the study was to test a contagion effect among selected EU countries in the years 2000–2014. The transmission channel under study was the GDP of a selected country. The empirical studies confirmed the existence of the contagion effect between the economic development of the Polish and selected EU economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Janiga-Ćmiel Anna, 2016. "An Analysis of Conditional Dependencies of Covariance Matrices for Economic Processes in Selected EU Countries," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 16(2), pages 119-134, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:foeste:v:16:y:2016:i:2:p:119-134:n:9
    DOI: 10.1515/foli-2016-0029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/foli-2016-0029
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/foli-2016-0029?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    2. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2003. "The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 9479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alvarez, Fernando & Barlevy, Gadi, 2021. "Mandatory disclosure and financial contagion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    5. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    6. Andrew Dickerson & Heather Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 1998. "Business Cycle Correspondence in the European Union," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 49-75, January.
    7. Cai, Yijie & Chou, Ray Yeutien & Li, Dan, 2009. "Explaining international stock correlations with CPI fluctuations and market volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2026-2035, November.
    8. U. Michael Bergman, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2004.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G., 2010. "Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960-2009)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 419-470, September.
    2. Konstantinos Konstantakis & Theofanis Papageorgiou & Panayotis Michaelides & Efthymios Tsionas, 2015. "Economic Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Political Business Cycles Approach Using Panel Data and Clustering (1996–2013)," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 971-998, November.
    3. Abu S. Amin & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2014. "Returns, Volatilities, and Correlations Across Mature, Regional, and Frontier Markets: Evidence from South Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 5-27, May.
    4. Ahmad, Wasim & Sehgal, Sanjay & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2013. "Eurozone crisis and BRIICKS stock markets: Contagion or market interdependence?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 209-225.
    5. Athina Zervoyianni & Athanasios Anastasiou, 2009. "Convergence of shocks and trade in the enlarged European Union," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 79-114.
    6. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
    7. Erkan Erdil & Y?lmaz Akdi, 2019. "Customs Union Effect in International Trade: Turkish Case," International Journal of Business and Management, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 43-58, November.
    8. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    9. Wasim Ahmad & N.R. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2014. "The Eurozone crisis and its contagion effects on the European stock markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(3), pages 325-352, July.
    10. Massacci, D., 2007. "Identification and Estimation in an Incoherent Model of Contagion," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0744, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Irina Tytell & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2009/133, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Saša Obradović & Vladimir Mihajlović, 2013. "Synchronization of Business Cycles in the Selected European Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 759-773, December.
    14. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "What drives cross-market correlations during the United States Q.E.?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Luigi Bocola, 2006. "Trade and Business-Cycle Comovement: Evidence from the EU," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 96(6), pages 25-62, November-.
    16. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization within Turkey," Working Papers 2015/01, Turkish Economic Association.
    17. Jacques Pelkmans & Lourdes Acedo Montoya & Alessandro Maravalle, 2008. "How product market reforms lubricate shock adjustment in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 341, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Everts, Martin, 2006. "Duration of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 1219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Pedro Oliveira, Maria Paula Fontoura, Nuno Sobreira, 2023. "Symmetry Of Demand And Supply Shocks In The Eurozone," Working Papers REM 2023/0275, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    20. Xu, Yongdeng & Taylor, Nick & Lu, Wenna, 2018. "Illiquidity and volatility spillover effects in equity markets during and after the global financial crisis: An MEM approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 208-220.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH model; contagion effect; economic development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:foeste:v:16:y:2016:i:2:p:119-134:n:9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.