IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrn/journl/y2020i3p316-327.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Managing Exchange Rate Risk with Derivatives: An Application of the Hedge Ratio

Author

Listed:
  • Consuela-Elena Popescu

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Georgiana Vrinceanu

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Alexandra Horobet

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Lucian Belascu

    (Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Sibiu, Romania)

Abstract

Risk management practices have become increasingly sophisticated. Derivatives have been developed and they can be widely used by economic agents in order to effectively hedge the risk, or by those who want to speculate on the evolution of prices. This study presents a hedging alternative with future contracts using an ARMA/ARIMA model. Employing five futures contracts on several exchange rates -AUD/CAD, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, RMB/USD - the actual value of the base at a future time (defined as the difference between spot rate and futures rate) can be predicted with a certain number of days until maturity. Apart from the classical calculation of the hedge rate this is another method for hedgers to use in order to reduce the volatility of their positions by trying to predict the future spot price in the currency market.

Suggested Citation

  • Consuela-Elena Popescu & Georgiana Vrinceanu & Alexandra Horobet & Lucian Belascu, 2020. "Managing Exchange Rate Risk with Derivatives: An Application of the Hedge Ratio," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 3, pages 316-327.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrn:journl:y:2020:i:3:p:316-327
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journal.ue-varna.bg/uploads/20200917063310_931700715f630326be2a7.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    2. Howe, M. A. & Rustem, B. & Selby, M. J. P., 1996. "Multi-period minimax hedging strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 185-204, August.
    3. Solomon, Jill Frances & Joseph, Nathan Lael, 2000. "Which Corporate Hedging Motives Are Appropriate? An Institutional Shareholders' Perspective," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 339-347, October.
    4. John M. Geppert, 1995. "A statistical model for the relationship between futures contract hedging effectiveness and investment horizon length," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 507-536, August.
    5. Richard D. F. Harris & Jian Shen & Evarist Stoja, 2010. "The Limits to Minimum‐Variance Hedging," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 737-761, June.
    6. Gregory W. Brown & Peter R. Crabb & David Haushalter, 2006. "Are Firms Successful at Selective Hedging?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 2925-2950, November.
    7. Richard D. F. Harris & Jian Shen & Evarist Stoja, 2010. "The Limits to Minimum‐Variance Hedging," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 737-761, June.
    8. Niclas Hagelin, 2003. "Why firms hedge with currency derivatives: an examination of transaction and translation exposure," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 55-69.
    9. Chris Brooks & Olan T. Henry & Gita Persand, 2002. "The Effect of Asymmetries on Optimal Hedge Ratios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 333-352, April.
    10. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    11. Martin Schweizer, 1994. "Risk‐Minimizing Hedging Strategies Under Restricted Information," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 327-342, October.
    12. Markopoulou, Chrysi E. & Skintzi, Vasiliki D. & Refenes, Apostolos-Paul N., 2016. "Realized hedge ratio: Predictability and hedging performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 121-133.
    13. Charles C. Yang & Patrick L. Brockett & Min-Ming Wen, 2009. "Basis risk and hedging efficiency of weather derivatives," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(5), pages 517-536, November.
    14. Pennings, Joost M. E. & Garcia, Philip, 2004. "Hedging behavior in small and medium-sized enterprises: The role of unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 951-978, May.
    15. Gagnon, Louis & Lypny, Gregory J. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1998. "Hedging foreign currency portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 197-220, September.
    16. Smith, Clifford W. & Stulz, René M., 1985. "The Determinants of Firms' Hedging Policies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 391-405, December.
    17. Leland L. Johnson, 1976. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Economics of Futures Trading, chapter 3, pages 83-99, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kuang, Wei, 2022. "The economic value of high-frequency data in equity-oil hedge," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    2. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Ramazan Gençay, 2016. "Commodity futures hedging, risk aversion and the hedging horizon," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(15), pages 1534-1560, December.
    3. Markopoulou, Chrysi E. & Skintzi, Vasiliki D. & Refenes, Apostolos-Paul N., 2016. "Realized hedge ratio: Predictability and hedging performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 121-133.
    4. Su, EnDer, 2017. "Stock index hedging using a trend and volatility regime-switching model involving hedging cost," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 233-254.
    5. Ubukata, Masato & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2015. "Evaluating the performance of futures hedging using multivariate realized volatility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 148-171.
    6. Ubukata, Masato, 2018. "Dynamic hedging performance and downside risk: Evidence from Nikkei index futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 270-281.
    7. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2022. "The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hedging functionality of Chinese financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Cao, Min & Conlon, Thomas, 2023. "Composite jet fuel cross-hedging," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    9. Su, EnDer, 2013. "Stock index hedge using trend and volatility regime switch model considering hedging cost," MPRA Paper 49190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Fabling, Richard & Grimes, Arthur, 2008. "Do Exporters Cut the Hedge? Who Hedges, When and Why?," Occasional Papers 08/2, Ministry of Economic Development, New Zealand.
    11. Hsiu‐Chuan Lee & Cheng‐Yi Chien & Tzu‐Hsiang Liao, 2009. "Determination of stock closing prices and hedging performance with stock indices futures," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 49(4), pages 827-847, December.
    12. Hung, Jui-Cheng, 2015. "Evaluation of realized multi-power variations in minimum variance hedging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 672-679.
    13. Hsiang-Tai Lee & Jonathan Yoder, 2007. "A bivariate Markov regime switching GARCH approach to estimate time varying minimum variance hedge ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(10), pages 1253-1265.
    14. Lee, Hsiang-Tai, 2010. "Regime switching correlation hedging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2728-2741, November.
    15. Yudong Wang & Chongfeng Wu & Li Yang, 2015. "Hedging with Futures: Does Anything Beat the Naïve Hedging Strategy?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 2870-2889, December.
    16. Hou, Yang & Holmes, Mark, 2017. "On the effects of static and autoregressive conditional higher order moments on dynamic optimal hedging," MPRA Paper 82000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Francis In & Sangbae Kim, 2012. "An Introduction to Wavelet Theory in Finance:A Wavelet Multiscale Approach," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8431, August.
    18. Ismael Pérez-Franco & Esteban Otto Thomasz & Gonzalo Rondinone & Agustín García-García, 2022. "Feed price risk management for sheep production in Spain: a composite future cross-hedging strategy," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 137-163, June.
    19. Dungey, Mardi & Henry, Olan T & Hvodzdyk, Lyudmyla, 2013. "The impact of jumps and thin trading on realized hedge ratios," Working Papers 2013-02, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 28 Mar 2013.
    20. Kotkatvuori-Örnberg, Juha, 2016. "Dynamic conditional copula correlation and optimal hedge ratios with currency futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 60-69.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate risk; hedging; ARMA; futures; stock exchange;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrn:journl:y:2020:i:3:p:316-327. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yana Doneva (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevarbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.