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Does Enrollment Lead to Completion? Measuring Adjustments in Education to Local Labor Market Shocks

Author

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  • Ramiro Burga
  • Sarah Turner

Abstract

Adverse local labor market shocks such as those generated by exposure of local industries to international trade have impacts on high school enrollment and completion that are theoretically ambiguous. Incentives to stay in school increase when employment prospects are weak, yet public resources for local schools may also shrink. This work demonstrates that, while high school enrollment rates increase significantly, high school degree attainment does not show commensurate growth. “Outmigration” of young adults and changes in the timing of degree receipt reconcile these measures. In addition, high school attainment effects are likely attenuated by declines in local resources per student.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramiro Burga & Sarah Turner, 2023. "Does Enrollment Lead to Completion? Measuring Adjustments in Education to Local Labor Market Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 755-782.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:58:y:2023:i:3:p:755-782
    Note: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.59.1.0121-11408
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    File URL: http://jhr.uwpress.org/cgi/reprint/58/3/755
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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