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A scenario-based model of the reproduction of institutional sectors’ investment potential in Sverdlovsk oblast

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  • Ilya V. Naumov

    (Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the RAS, Ekaterinburg, Russia ; Ural State Mining University, Ekaterinburg, Russia)

Abstract

The article aims to resolve the methodological problems in the sphere of scenario planning of the reproduction of institutional sectors’ investment potential in regions. These problems are due to the complexity of accounting for multilateral financial relationships between sectors in the processes of the reproduction of their investment potential and the labour intensive assessment of the factors affecting their investment activities. Methodologically the study relies on the theoretical provisions of the scenario approach and the formation of balance models using the System of National Accounts. At the first stage, the presented methodological approach to scenario planning of the reproduction of institutional sectors’ investment potential suggests creating a matrix of financial flows moving between the sectors and examining the regularities of their investment potential reproduction. At the next stage, the approach offers a regression model of the cross-sectional relationships emerging in the course of the reproduction of the institutional sectors’ investment potential by various financial instruments taking into account the influence of internal and external factors. At the last stage, the approach develops a system of the most probable scenarios for the transformation of the reproduction processes of institutional sectors’ investment potential. It also entails a search for the most favourable scenario that increases the financial sustainability of the sectors and provides the regions with resources necessary for the implementation of the crucial infrastructure projects and strategic programs of the socio-economic development. The methodological tools and scenarios for the reproduction of institutional sectors’ investment potential in Sverdlovsk oblast developed in the study can be of interest to public authorities when framing the concept of the regional investment policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilya V. Naumov, 2020. "A scenario-based model of the reproduction of institutional sectors’ investment potential in Sverdlovsk oblast," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 11(5), pages 17-28, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:url:upravl:v:11:y:2020:i:5:p:17-28
    DOI: 10.29141/2218-5003-2020-11-5-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilya V. Naumov & Vladislav M. Sedelnikov, 2021. "Scenario modelling and forecasting of spatial transformation in the Russian catering market," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 75-91, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    scenario planning; investment potential; matrix of financial flows; institutional sector; modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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