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Forecasting of Interregional Migration Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Yuriy Shmidt

    (Far Eastern Federal University)

  • Natalya Ivashina

    (Far Eastern Federal University)

  • Pavel Lobodin

    (FEFU)

  • Aleksey Kuhlevskiy

    (graduate student)

Abstract

The article explores the problem of interregional migration flows modelling. As a rule, the existing models of interregional migration flows use the aggregated data and do not take into consideration the fact that a decision to relocate is formed and taken at the micro-level, at the level of households. The purpose of the present research is to develop the forecasting method for interregional migration flows of the region taking into consideration the behaviour of households at the micro-level. The research tests the hypothesis that the modelling of household behaviours at the local level as regards taking a decision to relocate to other regions, which takes into account the existing interactions with relatives and other communities, allows to obtain adequate forecasts of interregional migration flows. To forecast the interregional migration flows of the region, we develop a methodological approach and software solution, based on cellular automaton model modification proposed in the current work and on econometric models of birth and death processes, which have been tested on the Primorsky Krai data. The authors’ model of the cellular automaton is a kind of the combined probabilistic cellular automaton in which the condition of each cell changes depending on a condition of four closest neighbours (von Neumann vicinity) and four cells chosen in a random way. The article builds a mid-term forecast of Primorsky Krai interregional migration flows. The research demonstrates the possibility and reasonability of modelling the interregional migration flows by cellular automatons. The highly perspective direction of the research is the modelling of other macroeconomic processes based on modelling by cellular automatons of a behaviour of households, companies and other economic entities at the local level.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuriy Shmidt & Natalya Ivashina & Pavel Lobodin & Aleksey Kuhlevskiy, 2017. "Forecasting of Interregional Migration Flows," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 126-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2017:i:1:p:126-136
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2003. "Determinants of Interregional Mobility in Russia: Evidence from Panel Data," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 551, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Vakulenko, Elena & Mkrtchyan , Nikita & Furmanov, Kirill, 2011. "Modeling registered migration flows between regions of the Russian Federation," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 21(1), pages 35-55.
    3. Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2004. "Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, March.
    4. Yuriy Davidovich Schmidt & Olga Nikolaevna Lobodina, 2015. "Some Approaches to Modeling the Spatial Diffusion of Innovations," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 2, pages 103-115.
    5. Silaghi, Monica Ioana & Ghatak, Subrata, 2011. "Why do not They Move from Rural to Urban Areas? Inter-Regional Migration in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 143-158, March.
    6. Annette N. Brown, 1997. "The Economic Determinants of the Internal Migration Flows in Russia During Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 89, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ksenia Shvorina & Larisa Faleychik, 2018. "Main Directions of Migration Mobility in the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 485-501.

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