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Estimation And Forecast Of Regional Competitiveness Level

Author

Listed:
  • Galina Gagarina

    (Plekhanov Russian University of Economics)

  • Nikita Moiseev

    (Plekhanov Russian University of Economics)

  • Alla Ryzhakova

    (Plekhanov Russian University of Economics)

  • Gleb Ryzhakov

    (Plekhanov Russian University of Economics)

Abstract

The paper is devoted to the development of methods for point and interval forecasting of the integral index of regional competitiveness. We stick to one of the most commonly used approaches to assessing the level of competitiveness based on its advantages over the others. As a result of this approach, the integral competitiveness index appears to be bounded, i.e. has a lower and upper limit. Due to this particular feature, it is proposed to carry out the forecasting of competitiveness index using multivariate logistic regression. The parameters of such model are determined using OLS through an inverse logarithmic transformation of the dependent variable. To calculate interval forecasts for the model, we proposed a new probability distribution for the errors of the nonlinear regression equation in the class of logistic curves. According to the proposed method, we calculated and forecasted the regional competitiveness level for the Russian Federation until 2020. The analysis of the data revealed some features of the regions distribution in terms of competitiveness level and indicated regional development trends. The paper has been prepared within the research project â„–1675: "Methodological and analytical tools for solving problems of spatial development of Russian economy under conditions of modern reforms" in terms of the basic part of the state order in the field of scientific activity of Russian Ministry of Education.

Suggested Citation

  • Galina Gagarina & Nikita Moiseev & Alla Ryzhakova & Gleb Ryzhakov, 2016. "Estimation And Forecast Of Regional Competitiveness Level," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1040-1049.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2016:i:4:p:1040-1049
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Porter, 2003. "The Economic Performance of Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6-7), pages 549-578.
    2. Nebojša Savić, 2012. "Comparative Analysis Based on New Competitiveness Index," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(1), pages 105-115, March.
    3. Ron Boschma, 2004. "Competitiveness of Regions from an Evolutionary Perspective," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(9), pages 1001-1014.
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    Cited by:

    1. Galina Chernyshova & Irina Veshneva & Anna Firsova & Elena L. Makarova & Elena A. Makarova, 2023. "Methodology for Assessing the Risks of Regional Competitiveness Based on the Kolmogorov–Chapman Equations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    integral index of competitiveness; time series forecasting; prediction of bounded variables; logistic regression; OLS; multifactor linear regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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