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Detecting Large-Scale Collusion in Procurement Auctions

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  • Kei Kawai
  • Jun Nakabayashi

Abstract

We document evidence of widespread collusion among construction firms in Japan using a novel data set covering most of the construction projects procured by the Japanese national government. Our data set contains information on about 42,000 auctions whose award amount sums to about $40 billion. We identify collusion by focusing on rebids that occur for auctions in which all (initial) bids fail to meet the secret reserve price. We identify more than 1,000 firms whose conduct is inconsistent with competitive behavior. These bidders were awarded about 15,000 projects, or about 37% of the total number of projects in our sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Kei Kawai & Jun Nakabayashi, 2022. "Detecting Large-Scale Collusion in Procurement Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(5), pages 1364-1411.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/718913
    DOI: 10.1086/718913
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    Cited by:

    1. David Barrus & Frank Scott, 2020. "Single Bidders and Tacit Collusion in Highway Procurement Auctions," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 483-522, September.
    2. Ceesay, Muhammed, 2023. "Suspecting Collusion," EconStor Preprints 268306, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Aljoscha Janssen, 2022. "Price dynamics of Swedish pharmaceuticals," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 313-351, December.
    4. Panhans, Matthew T., 2023. "The Rise, Fall, and Legacy of the Structure-Conduct-Performance Paradigm," SocArXiv dvm3e, Center for Open Science.
    5. Antonio Estache & Renaud Foucart & Tomas Serebrisky, 2022. "When can Lotteries improve Public Procurement Processes?," Working Papers ECARES 2022-22, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. de Leverano, Adriano, 2019. "Collusion through market sharing agreements: Evidence from Quebec's road paving market," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-053, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Pietro Bonaldi & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "An Auction-Based Test of Private Information in an Interdealer FX Market," Borradores de Economia 1049, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Ceesay Muhammed, 2024. "Collusion with Not-So-Secret Rings," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(2), pages 563-570, June.
    9. Sanna Laksá & Daniel Marszalec & Alexander Teytelboym, 2018. "Epic Fail: How Below-Bid Pricing Backfires in Multiunit Auctions," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1096, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    10. Antonio Estache & Renaud Foucart & Tomas Serebrisky, 2024. "Can Lotteries help fix Procurement Failures? A Review of Theory and Evidence," Working Papers ECARES 2024-18, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Johannes Wachs & J'anos Kert'esz, 2019. "A network approach to cartel detection in public auction markets," Papers 1906.08667, arXiv.org.
    12. Ma, Jun & Marmer, Vadim & Shneyerov, Artyom, 2019. "Inference for first-price auctions with Guerre, Perrigne, and Vuong’s estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 507-538.
    13. Clark, Robert & Coviello, Decio & de Leverano, Adriano, 2020. "Complementary bidding and the collusive arrangement: Evidence from an antitrust investigation," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-052, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    15. Robert Clark & Ignatius Horstmann & Jean-François Houde, 2021. "Hub and Spoke Cartels: Theory and Evidence from the Grocery Industry," NBER Working Papers 29253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Asseyer, Andreas, 2016. "Optimal Information Disclosure and Collusion," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145779, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Honda, Jun, 2015. "Intermediary Search for Suppliers in Procurement Auctions," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 203, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    18. Gabrielli, M. Florencia & Willington, Manuel, 2023. "Estimating damages from bidding rings in first-price auctions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Waterson, Michael & Xie, Jian, 2019. "Testing for collusion in bus contracting in London," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1196, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    20. Robert Clark & Decio Coviello & Jean-Fran�ois Gauthier & Art Shneyerov, 2018. "Bid Rigging and Entry Deterrence in Public Procurement: Evidence from an Investigation into Collusion and Corruption in Quebec," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 301-363.
    21. Lu, Jiaxuan, 2023. "The economics of China’s between-city height competition: A regression discontinuity approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    22. Silveira, Douglas & de Moraes, Lucas B. & Fiuza, Eduardo P.S. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2023. "Who are you? Cartel detection using unlabeled data," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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