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Economic Effects of Runs on Early "Shadow Banks": Trust Companies and the Impact of the Panic of 1907

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  • Carola Frydman
  • Eric Hilt
  • Lily Y. Zhou

Abstract

We study the effects of a contraction in financial intermediation on nonfinancial firms. The Panic of 1907 originated in the shadow banks of the time, New York's trust companies. The runs were caused by a shock unrelated to the trust companies' nonfinancial corporate clients. In the years following the panic, corporations affiliated with the worst-affected trusts made fewer capital investments, paid lower dividends, and suffered lower profitability and higher borrowing costs relative to firms without such connections. The shock to New York's trust companies accounted for at least 18.4 percent of the decline in corporate investment in the United States in 1908.

Suggested Citation

  • Carola Frydman & Eric Hilt & Lily Y. Zhou, 2015. "Economic Effects of Runs on Early "Shadow Banks": Trust Companies and the Impact of the Panic of 1907," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(4), pages 902-940.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/681575
    DOI: 10.1086/681575
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    9. Escamilla-Guerrero, David & López-Alonso, Moramay, 2023. "Migrant Self-Selection and Random Shocks: Evidence from the Panic of 1907," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 45-85, March.
    10. Kyriakos T. Chousakos & Gary B. Gorton, 2017. "Bank Health Post-Crisis," NBER Working Papers 23167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    12. Christopher Hoag, 2024. "Bank Executive Experience in a Financial Crisis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(9), pages 1-1, September.
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    14. Rockoff, Hugh, 2022. "Milton Friedman on bailouts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    15. Christopher Hoag, 2019. "Bank Executive Experience in a Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1902, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    16. Jason R. Donaldson & Giorgia Piacentino, 2019. "Money Runs," NBER Working Papers 26298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Mary T. Rodgers & James E. Payne, 2020. "Post‐financial crisis changes in financial system structure: An examination of the J.P. Morgan & Co. Syndicates after the 1907 Panic," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(S1), pages 226-241, March.
    18. Ran Abramitzky, 2015. "Economics and the Modern Economic Historian," NBER Working Papers 21636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Henrich R. Greve & Lori Qingyuan Yue, 2017. "Hereafter: How Crises Shape Communities Through Learning and Institutional Legacies," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(6), pages 1098-1114, December.
    20. Gehrig, Thomas & Fohlin, Caroline & Haas, Marlene, 2015. "Rumors and Runs in Opaque Markets: Evidence from the Panic of 1907," CEPR Discussion Papers 10497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Todd Messer, 2022. "Financial Failure and Depositor Quality: Evidence from Building and Loan Associations in California," International Finance Discussion Papers 1354, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. David Escamilla-Guerrero & Moramay Lopez-Alonso, 2019. "Self-selection of Mexican migrants in the presence of random shocks: Evidence from the Panic of 1907," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-23, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    23. Gehrig, Thomas Paul & Fohlin, Caroline & Haas, Marlene, 2015. "Liquidty Freezes and Market Runs; Evidencefrom the Panic of 1907," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113008, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    24. Aldunate, Felipe & González, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2024. "The limits of hegemony: U.S. banks and Chilean firms in the Cold War," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N81 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

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