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Equity Risk Premia, Corporate Profit Forecasts, and Investor Sentiment around the Stock Crash of October 1987

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  • Siegel, Jeremy J

Abstract

This paper confirms that changes in consensus corporate profit forecasts and interest rates were completely unable to explain the rise and subsequent collapse of stock prices during 1987. The equity risk premium would have had to fall and then rise by about 4 percentage points to explain the behavior of stock prices around the crash on the basis of standard valuation models. Such shifts did not occur during the 1990-91 stock market cycle. There was, however, an unusually wide divergence of future profit forecasts before the crash, a phenomenon that may have left the market vulnerable to shifting investing sentiment. Copyright 1992 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Siegel, Jeremy J, 1992. "Equity Risk Premia, Corporate Profit Forecasts, and Investor Sentiment around the Stock Crash of October 1987," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(4), pages 557-570, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:65:y:1992:i:4:p:557-70
    DOI: 10.1086/296585
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    Cited by:

    1. Naifar, Nader, 2016. "Do global risk factors and macroeconomic conditions affect global Islamic index dynamics? A quantile regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 29-39.
    2. Liston, Daniel Perez, 2016. "Sin stock returns and investor sentiment," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 63-70.
    3. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    4. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Stock market reactions to domestic sentiment: Panel CS-ARDL evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Chin‐Ho Chen, 2021. "Investor sentiment, misreaction, and the skewness‐return relationship," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1427-1455, September.
    6. Gaies, Brahim & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Ayadi, Rim & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2022. "Exploring the causal links between investor sentiment and financial instability: A dynamic macro-financial analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 290-303.
    7. Chiu, Junmao & Chung, Huimin & Ho, Keng-Yu & Wu, Chih-Chiang, 2018. "Investor sentiment and evaporating liquidity during the financial crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 21-36.
    8. Dong, Xinyue & Ma, Rong & Li, Honggang, 2019. "Stock index pegging and extreme markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 13-21.
    9. Ming-Chi Chen & Chi-Lu Peng & So-De Shyu & Jhih-Hong Zeng, 2012. "Market States and the Effect on Equity REIT Returns due to Changes in Monetary Policy Stance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 364-382, August.
    10. James Ang & Carol Boyer, 2009. "Has the 1987 crash changed the psyche of the stock market?," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(2), pages 138-154, May.
    11. Lee, Wayne Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Indro, Daniel C., 2002. "Stock market volatility, excess returns, and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2277-2299.
    12. Kanzari, Dalel & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Gaies, Brahim & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2023. "Predicting macro-financial instability – How relevant is sentiment? Evidence from long short-term memory networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Lei, Qin & Wu, Guojun, 2005. "Time-varying informed and uninformed trading activities," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 153-181, May.
    14. Yang, Jian & Bessler, David A., 2008. "Contagion around the October 1987 stock market crash," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 291-310, January.
    15. Kling, Gerhard & Gao, Lei, 2008. "Chinese institutional investors' sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 374-387, October.
    16. Keval Amin & John Daniel Eshleman & Peng Guo, 2021. "Investor Sentiment, Misstatements, and Auditor Behavior," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 483-517, March.
    17. Mohamed Zouaoui & Geneviève Nouyrigat & Francisca Beer, 2011. "How does investor sentiment affect stock market crises?Evidence from panel data," Working Papers CREGO 1110304, Université de Bourgogne - CREGO EA7317 Centre de recherches en gestion des organisations.
    18. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Bonsu, Christiana Osei & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "The effects of public sentiments and feelings on stock market behavior: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 443-472.
    19. M. Zouaoui & G. Nouyrigat & F. Beer, 2010. "How does investor sentiment affect stock market crises? Evidence from panel data," Post-Print halshs-00534754, HAL.
    20. Junmao Chiu & Huimin Chung & Keng-Yu Ho, 2014. "Fear Sentiment, Liquidity, and Trading Behavior: Evidence from the Index ETF Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(03), pages 1-25.

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