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The Prison Boom and Sentencing Policy

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  • Derek Neal
  • Armin Rick

Abstract

The existing literature on the role of changes in sentencing policies as drivers of growth in prison populations contains findings that appear contradictory. We present a new method for characterizing changes in the severity of expected punishments for offenders and build a new simulation model based on this method. We provide clear evidence that changes in sentencing policy drove recent growth in prison populations in the United States, and our approach sheds light on the reasons that some previous studies did not reach this conclusion. The shift to more punitive sentencing policies had a disproportionate effect on black communities, even though, for the most part, this shift did not target blacks or crimes that blacks commit relatively more than whites.

Suggested Citation

  • Derek Neal & Armin Rick, 2016. "The Prison Boom and Sentencing Policy," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 1-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlstud:doi:10.1086/684310
    DOI: 10.1086/684310
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Jordan & Ezra Karger & Derek Neal, 2021. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Sentencing Decisions," Working Paper Series WP 2022-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 12 Feb 2022.
    2. Bjerk, David J. & Helland, Eric, 2017. "Using a Ratio Test to Estimate Racial Differences in Wrongful Conviction Rates," IZA Discussion Papers 10631, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Osborne Jackson & Riley Sullivan, 2020. "The Impact of Felony Larceny Thresholds on Crime in New England," New England Public Policy Center Research Report 87612, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Margherita Borella & Fang Yang & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2019. "The changing opportunities and outcomes of non-college educated Americans," 2019 Meeting Papers 206, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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