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Speeding, Punishment, and Recidivism: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

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  • Markus Gehrsitz

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of temporary driver's license suspensions on driving behavior. A little-known rule in the German traffic penalty schedule maintains that drivers who commit a series of speeding offenses within 365 days should have their licenses suspended for 1 month. My regression discontinuity design exploits the quasi-random assignment of license suspensions caused by the 365-day cutoff and shows that 1-month license suspensions lower the probability of recidivating within a year by 20 percent. This is largely a specific-deterrence effect driven by the punishment itself and not by incapacitation, information asymmetries, or the threat of stiffer future penalties.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Gehrsitz, 2017. "Speeding, Punishment, and Recidivism: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 497-528.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlawec:doi:10.1086/694844
    DOI: 10.1086/694844
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    Cited by:

    1. Siân Mughan & Joanna Carroll, 2021. "Escaping the long arm of the law? Racial disparities in the effect of drivers' license suspensions on offense probabilities," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(4), pages 1366-1389, April.
    2. Bauernschuster, Stefan & Rekers, Ramona, 2022. "Speed limit enforcement and road safety," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    3. Agan, Amanda & Doleac, Jennifer & Harvey, Anna, 2021. "Misdemeanor Prosecution," IZA Discussion Papers 14234, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Felipe Goncalves & Steven Mello, 2021. "A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1406-1441, May.
    5. Rebollo-Sanz, Yolanda & Rodríguez-López, Jesús & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2021. "Penalty-point system, deterrence and road safety: A quasi-experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 408-433.
    6. Jason Bantjes & Sophia du Plessis & Ada Jansen & Krige Siebrits, 2021. "Better enforcement is essential, but may be inadequate: Findings of a survey on the factors affecting payment of speeding fines in Cape Town, South Africa," Working Papers 03/2021, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    7. Carl Lieberman & Elizabeth Luh & Michael Mueller-Smith, 2023. "Criminal court fees, earnings, and expenditures: A multi-state RD analysis of survey and administrative data," Working Papers 23-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    8. Jason Bantjes & Sophia du Plessis & Ada Jansen & Krige Siebrits, 2021. "Better Enforcement Is Essential, but May Be Inadequate: Findings of a Survey on the Factors Affecting Payment of Speeding Fines in Cape Town, South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-16, April.
    9. Fry, Jane M., 2023. "Do increased speeding fines save lives?," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    10. Martti Kaila, 2024. "How Do People React to Income-Based Fines? Evidence from Speeding Tickets Discontinuities," CESifo Working Paper Series 11064, CESifo.

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