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Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk

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  • Gizem Koşar
  • Wilbert van der Klaauw

Abstract

In addition to realized earnings and employment shocks, forward-looking individuals are presumed to condition their consumption and labor supply decisions on their subjective beliefs about future labor market risks. This paper uses rich panel data to document considerable individual heterogeneity in earnings growth expectations and in the perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job exits. We examine how expectations evolve over the working life and business cycle and how they covary with macroeconomic expectations and personal experiences. While largely consistent with patterns in realized outcomes, our findings highlight the unanticipated nature of the pandemic recession and the ensuing resignation wave.

Suggested Citation

  • Gizem Koşar & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2025. "Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(S1), pages 83-121.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:doi:10.1086/734088
    DOI: 10.1086/734088
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