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Interpreting Experimental Evidence in the Presence of Postrandomization Events: A Reassessment of the Self-Sufficiency Project

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  • Chris Riddell
  • W. Craig Riddell

Abstract

The Self-Sufficiency Project (SSP) was a well-known welfare-to-work experiment that provided a generous but time-limited financial incentive to leave welfare and enter the workforce. Experimental evidence showed large short-term impacts but no lasting effects. We argue that these conclusions need to be reassessed. Policy changes implemented during the SSP implied that the control group’s behavior did not provide an appropriate counterfactual. We estimate the impacts the financial incentive would have had in an unchanging policy environment. This reassessment leads to significant changes in the lessons previously reached. Our study demonstrates that experimental findings need to be interpreted with care.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Riddell & W. Craig Riddell, 2020. "Interpreting Experimental Evidence in the Presence of Postrandomization Events: A Reassessment of the Self-Sufficiency Project," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(4), pages 873-914.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:doi:10.1086/706513
    DOI: 10.1086/706513
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Albanese & Bart Cockx & Muriel Dejemeppe, 2022. "Long-Term Effects of Hiring Subsidies for Unemployed Youths—Beware of Spillovers," CESifo Working Paper Series 9972, CESifo.
    2. Chris Riddell, 2020. "Welfare to work and subjective well‐being: Evidence from a randomized control trial," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 83-107, February.
    3. Fiala, Nathan & Rose, Julian & Aryemo, Filder & Peters, Jörg, 2022. "The (very) long-run impacts of cash grants during a crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 961, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Albanese, Andrea & Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2024. "Long-term effects of hiring subsidies for low-educated unemployed youths," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    5. Sam Desiere & Bart Cockx, 2021. "How Effective Are Hiring Subsidies to Reduce Long-Term Unemployment among Prime-Aged Jobseekers? Evidence from Belgium," CESifo Working Paper Series 9325, CESifo.

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