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The Ohio Vaccine Lottery and Starting Vaccination Rates

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  • Margaret E. Brehm
  • Paul A. Brehm
  • Martin Saavedra

Abstract

We find that Ohio’s “Vax-a-Million” lottery increased first-dose COVID-19 vaccinations by between 50,000 and 100,000, with most of the additional doses occurring during the two weeks between the announcement and the first lottery drawing. We use county-level data and two empirical approaches to provide causal estimates of the lottery in Ohio. First, a difference-in-differences design compares vaccination rates in border counties in Ohio and Indiana before and after the announcement. Second, we use a pooled synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual for each of Ohio’s counties using control counties in Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The synthetic control analysis reveals larger increases in vaccination rates in more populous counties. Our estimates imply that Ohio paid about $75 per additional starting dose during this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Margaret E. Brehm & Paul A. Brehm & Martin Saavedra, 2022. "The Ohio Vaccine Lottery and Starting Vaccination Rates," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(3), pages 387-411.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:amjhec:doi:10.1086/718512
    DOI: 10.1086/718512
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    Cited by:

    1. Orhan Erdem & Sukran Erdem & Kelly Monson, 2023. "Children, vaccines, and financial incentives," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 537-552, December.
    2. Lynn Bergeland Morgan & Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2023. "Policy Evaluation with Nonlinear Trended Outcomes: COVID-19 Vaccination Rates in the US," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2380, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Xinrui Zhang & Tom Lane, 2022. "The backfiring effects of monetary and gift incentives on Covid-19 vaccination willingness," Discussion Papers 2022-14, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    4. Katherine L. Milkman & Linnea Gandhi & Sean F. Ellis & Heather N. Graci & Dena M. Gromet & Rayyan S. Mobarak & Alison M. Buttenheim & Angela L. Duckworth & Devin Pope & Ala Stanford & Richard Thaler &, 2022. "A citywide experiment testing the impact of geographically targeted, high-pay-off vaccine lotteries," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1515-1524, November.
    5. Ruben Juarez & Nicole Siegal & Alika Maunakea, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in Hawaii," Working Papers 2022-1, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    6. Joshua S. Gans, 2023. "Vaccine Hesitancy, Passports, And The Demand For Vaccination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 641-652, May.
    7. Andreas Steinmayr & Manuel Rossi, 2022. "Vaccine-skeptic physicians and COVID-19 vaccination rates," Working Papers 2022-16, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    8. Alexander Karaivanov & Dongwoo Kim & Shih En Lu & Hitoshi Shigeoka, 2022. "COVID-19 vaccination mandates and vaccine uptake," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1615-1624, December.
    9. Virat Agrawal & Jonathan H. Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution on Mental Health Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 29593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Andreas Steinmayr & Manuel Rossi, 2024. "Vaccine‐skeptic physicians and patient vaccination decisions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 509-525, March.
    11. Eiji Yamamura & Yoshiro Tsutsui & Fumio Ohtake, 2023. "Would Monetary Incentives to COVID-19 vaccination reduce motivation?," Papers 2311.11828, arXiv.org.

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