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Following Germany's Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Estimate the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy

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  • Julian di Giovanni

    (International Monetary Fund, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER)

  • Justin McCrary

    (International Monetary Fund, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER)

  • Till von Wachter

    (Columbia University and NBER)

Abstract

Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority makes it difficult to estimate the effect of monetary policy interventions on output. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on quarterly real output for several European countries, using German interest rates as the instrument. These estimates confirm a strong forward-looking bias in least squares estimates that persists even conditional on standard controls for the history of the system. Due to the potential for correlation of output shocks across countries, we interpret our estimates as lower bounds for the effect of monetary policy on real output. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian di Giovanni & Justin McCrary & Till von Wachter, 2009. "Following Germany's Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Estimate the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(2), pages 315-331, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:91:y:2009:i:2:p:315-331
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhen Huo & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, "undated". "The Global Business Cycle: Measurement and Transmission," Working Papers 669, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    2. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque, 2023. "Monetary policy and the wage inflation-unemployment tradeoff," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Georgios P. Kouretas & Chris Tsoumas, 2013. "Bank Risk-Taking in CEE Countries," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 5(2), pages 103-123, June.
    4. Ulrich Haskamp, 2018. "Spillovers of banking regulation: the effect of the German bank levy on the lending rates of regional banks and their local competitors," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 449-466, April.
    5. Mitchener, Kris James & Pina, Gonçalo, 2023. "The effects of countercyclical interest rates: Evidence from the classical gold standard," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2020. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 22-40.
    7. Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2023. "Utilization-adjusted TFP across countries: Measurement and implications for international comovement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Antonio Paradiso & Saten Kumar & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "A New Keynesian IS curve for Australia: is it forward looking or backward looking?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3691-3700, September.
    9. Drakos, Anastassios A. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Tsoumas, Chris, 2016. "Ownership, interest rates and bank risk-taking in Central and Eastern European countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 308-319.
    10. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Interest rates and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 840-855, April.
    11. Muhammad Azmat Hayat & Huma Ghulam & Maryam Batool & Muhammad Zahid Naeem & Abdullah Ejaz & Cristi Spulbar & Ramona Birau, 2021. "Investigating the Causal Linkages among Inflation, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Pakistan under the Influence of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Wavelet Transformation Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, June.
    12. Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2020. "Inflation Globally," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 8, pages 269-316, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Penu, Samuel Lucky & Nkanbia-Davies, Lilian Okorite, 2017. "Implications of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Economic Performance: The Nigerian Experience," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(10), pages 206-217, 10-2017.
    14. Maximilian Grimm, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Bank Funding Stability," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 341, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    15. Laura Liu & Christian Matthes & Katerina Petrova, 2022. "Monetary Policy Across Space and Time," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 37-64, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    16. Zhen Huo & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2019. "International Comovement in the Global Production Network," NBER Working Papers 25978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Andrei Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai Nayar, 2018. "Technology and Non-Technology Shocks: Measurement and Implications for International Comovement," 2018 Meeting Papers 449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Georgios Kouretas & Chris Tsoumas & Anastasios A. Drakos, 2013. "Ownership, institutions and bank risk-taking in Central and Eastern European countries," EcoMod2013 5204, EcoMod.

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