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Do Fluctuations in U.S. Inflation Rates Reflect Infrequent Large Shocks or Frequent Small Shocks?

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  • Prasad V. Bidarkota

    (Florida International University)

Abstract

We investigate whether fluctuations in U.S. inflation rates are better described by infrequently occurring large shocks or by frequently occurring small shocks. We estimate a model that encompasses the two hypotheses within the framework of non-Gaussian state-space models. Our results indicate support for infrequently occurring large shocks, but this weakens somewhat once we allow for outliers and conditional heteroskedasticity. It appears that, for the purpose of forecasting monthly U.S. inflation rates, recognizing the distinction between frequent small shocks and infrequent large shocks does not matter much once outliers and conditional heteroskedasticity are allowed for. © 2003 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2003. "Do Fluctuations in U.S. Inflation Rates Reflect Infrequent Large Shocks or Frequent Small Shocks?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 765-771, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:85:y:2003:i:3:p:765-771
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    Cited by:

    1. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
    2. Rokon Bhuiyan, 2013. "Inflationary expectations and monetary policy: evidence from Bangladesh," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1155-1169, June.
    3. J. Huston McCulloch & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2003. "Signal Extraction can Generate Volatility Clusters," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 59, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. J. Huston McCulloch & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2002. "Signal Extraction Can Generate Volatility Clusters From IID Shocks," Working Papers 02-04, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Bidarkota, Prasad V. & Dupoyet, Brice V. & McCulloch, J. Huston, 2009. "Asset pricing with incomplete information and fat tails," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1314-1331, June.

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