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The Race Between Deterrence and Displacement: Theory and Evidence from Bank Robberies

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  • Vikram Maheshri

    (University of Houston)

  • Giovanni Mastrobuoni

    (University of Torino and University of Essex)

Abstract

Security measures that deter crime may unwittingly displace it to neighboring areas, but evidence of displacement is scarce. We exploit precise information on the timing and locations of all Italian bank robberies and security guard hirings over a decade to estimate deterrence and displacement effects of guards. A guard lowers the likelihood a bank is robbed by 35% to 40%. Over half of this reduction is displaced to nearby unguarded banks. Theory suggests optimal policy to mitigate this spillover is ambiguous. Our findings indicate restricting guards in sparse, rural markets and requiring guards in dense, urban markets could be socially beneficial.

Suggested Citation

  • Vikram Maheshri & Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2021. "The Race Between Deterrence and Displacement: Theory and Evidence from Bank Robberies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 547-562, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:103:y:2021:i:3:p:547-562
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00900
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    Cited by:

    1. Pereira, Leila & Pucci, Rafael & Soares, Rodrigo R., 2024. "Landing on Water: Air Interdiction, Drug-Trafficking Displacement, and Violence in the Brazilian Amazon," IZA Discussion Papers 17425, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Jesse Matheson & Brendon McConnell & James Rockey & Argyris Sakalis, 2023. "Do Remote Workers Deter Neighborhood Crime? Evidence from the Rise of Working from Home," Working Papers 2023020, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    3. Weiguang Deng & Xue Li & Zijun Luo, 2023. "A model of police financing through income and consumption taxes," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(3), pages 217-230, July.
    4. Federico Masera, 2022. "The economics of policing and crimeThe economics of policing and crime," Chapters, in: Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Vanin & Juan Vargas (ed.), A Modern Guide to the Economics of Crime, chapter 2, pages 12-29, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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