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The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle: How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown?

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  • Harry X. Wu

    (School of Accounting and Finance, Faculty of Business, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hung Hom, Hong Kong, SAR, China)

Abstract

The Chinese statistical authorities recently revised the Chinese GDP level and real growth rate for the period 1993-2004 following China's first national economic census for 2004. However, the methodology used in their revision is opaque. Using a trend- deviation interpolation approach, this study has managed to replicate the basic procedures of the revision and reproduced the official estimates. Through this exercise, we have found that the estimates that could be obtained by the straightforward interpolation procedures were significantly modified. Based on a political economy argument, we attempt to explain why the revision had to leave the growth rate of 1998 intact and why it had to bypass the price issue and directly work on the real growth rate revision. Based on previous studies and other observations, we also question the census results on non-service industries. (c) 2007 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Harry X. Wu, 2007. "The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle: How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:6:y:2007:i:1:p:1-23
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    Cited by:

    1. Ippei Fujiwara & Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2008. "The Global Impact of Chinese Growth," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-22, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    2. Pierre van der Eng & Kitae Sohn, 2018. "The Biological Standard of Living in China during the 20th Century: Evidence from the Age at Menarche," CEH Discussion Papers 10, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    3. Fang Fang & Danglun Luo & Yuexin Huang & Xin Cao, 2024. "How does regional GDP manipulation affect livelihood investment?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Foltas, Alexander, 2024. "Inefficient forecast narratives: A BERT-based approach," Working Papers 45, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    5. Shalendra D. Sharma, 2009. "Dealing with the Contagion: China and India in the Aftermath of the Subprime Meltdown," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(2), pages 1-14, March.
    6. Li, Kui-Wai & Liu, Tung, 2011. "Economic and productivity growth decomposition: An application to post-reform China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 366-373.
    7. Holz, Carsten A., 2014. "The quality of China's GDP statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 309-338.
    8. Xinhua He, 2010. "Noteworthy Discrepancies in China's GDP Accounting," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 88-102.
    9. Zhou, Xianbo & Li, Kui-Wai & Li, Qin, 2011. "An analysis on technical efficiency in post-reform China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 357-372, September.
    10. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.
    11. Hao, Yu & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "China’s farewell to coal: A forecast of coal consumption through 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 444-455.
    12. Chen, Yen-Hsiao & Quan, Lianfeng & Liu, Yang, 2013. "An empirical investigation on the temporal properties of China's GDP," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 69-81.
    13. Zhang, Chunni & Xu, Qi & Zhou, Xiang & Zhang, Xiaobo & Xie, Yu, 2014. "Are poverty rates underestimated in China? New evidence from four recent surveys," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 410-425.
    14. Li, Chao & Gibson, John, 2013. "Rising Regional Inequality in China: Fact or Artifact?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 16-29.
    15. Wu, Harry X., 2011. "The Real Growth of Chinese Industry Debate Revisited--Reconstructing China's Industrial GDP in 1949-2008--," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 62(3), pages 209-224, July.
    16. Iris Day, 2015. "Assessing China’s Merchandise Trade Data Using Mirror Statistics," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 19-28, December.
    17. Eeva Kerola, 2019. "In Search of Fluctuations: Another Look at China’s Incredibly Stable GDP Growth Rates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 359-380, September.
    18. Jeffrey Zax, 2014. "Housing allocations, imputed rents and inequality in urban China," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1682, European Regional Science Association.
    19. Chao Li & John Gibson, 2018. "Regional Inequality in China allowing for Spatial Cost-of-Living Differences: Evidence from a Hedonic Analysis of Apartment Prices," Working Papers in Economics 18/12, University of Waikato.
    20. Zhang, Chunni & Xu, Qi & Zhang, Xiaobo & Xie, Yu, 2013. "An evaluation of poverty prevalence in China: New evidence from four recent surveys:," IFPRI discussion papers 1293, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    21. Harry X. Wu & Eric Girardin, 2016. "The ‘new’ normal is ‘old’ in China: Very late catching up and return to the (pre-WTO) old normal," EcoMod2016 9721, EcoMod.
    22. Peng, Liqun & Zhang, Qiang & Yao, Zhiliang & Mauzerall, Denise L. & Kang, Sicong & Du, Zhenyu & Zheng, Yixuan & Xue, Tao & He, Kebin, 2019. "Underreported coal in statistics: A survey-based solid fuel consumption and emission inventory for the rural residential sector in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1169-1182.
    23. K. C. Fung & Alicia Garcia-Herrero, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investment Outflows From China And India," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-15.
    24. Lai, Pingyao & Zhu, Tian, 2022. "Deflating China's nominal GDP: 2004–2018," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    25. Deshan Li & Yanfen Zhao & Rongwei Wu & Jiefang Dong, 2019. "Spatiotemporal Features and Socioeconomic Drivers of PM 2.5 Concentrations in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, February.

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