IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tho/journl/v18y2012n2p171-181.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting the demand for health tourism in Asian countries using a GM(1,1)-Alpha model

Author

Listed:
  • Ya-Ling Huang

    (Chaoyang University of Technology, Department of Golden-Ager Industry Management, Taichung, Taiwan)

Abstract

The purpose – Accurately forecasting the demand for international health tourism is important to newly-emerging markets in the world. The aim of this study was presents a more suitable and accurate model for forecasting the demand for health tourism that should be more theoretically useful. Design – Applying GM(1,1) with adaptive levels of α(hereafter GM(1,1)-αmodel) to provide a concise prediction model that will improve the ability to forecast the demand for health tourism in Asian countries. Methodology – In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, using available secondary and primary data covering the period from 2002 through 2009 obtained from the RNCOS “Opportunities in Asian Health tourism” report. Based on a unique and characteristics database for the health tourism industry, this study applies the adaptive α in a Grey forecasting model (GM(1,1)-α) to predict the demand for health tourism in Asian countries. Approach – Implementation of demand forecasting in health tourism is examined on the shortterm and limited dataset, due to importance of a minimum the predicated error on underlying basis for the econometric model for health tourism markets. Findings – Key findings present that the optimal value of α in GM(1,1) can minimize the predicted error. Finally, in the case of the demand for health tourism in Asian countries, using GM(1,1)-αto predict error is clearly better than the use of the original GM(1,1) and time series models. The originality of this research – The originality comes from the analysis of the demand forecasting in health tourism of Asian countries, which provides an easy and accurate method to predict the demand for health medical tourism and ideas for further improvements in the sector of health tourism.

Suggested Citation

  • Ya-Ling Huang, 2012. "Forecasting the demand for health tourism in Asian countries using a GM(1,1)-Alpha model," Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, vol. 18(2), pages 171-181, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:tho:journl:v:18:y:2012:n:2:p:171-181
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hrcak.srce.hr/index.php?show=clanak&id_clanak_jezik=138301
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hoang-Sa Dang & Ying-Fang Huang & Chia-Nan Wang & Thuy-Mai-Trinh Nguyen, 2016. "An Application of the Short-Term Forecasting with Limited Data in the Healthcare Traveling Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-14, October.
    2. Akarapong Untong & Vicente Ramos & Mingsarn Kaosa-Ard & Javier Rey-Maquieira, 2015. "Tourism Demand Analysis of Chinese Arrivals in Thailand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(6), pages 1221-1234, December.
    3. Lin Zhuo & Xiangfeng Guan & Songzhong Ye, 2020. "Prediction Analysis of the Coordinated Development of the Sports and Pension Industries: Taking 11 Provinces and Cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    4. Lin Zhuo & Xiangfeng Guan & Songzhong Ye, 2020. "Quantitative Evaluation and Prediction Analysis of the Healthy and Sustainable Development of China’s Sports Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health Tourism; Health tourism Demand; Grey Forecasting; GM(1; 1)-Alpha;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tho:journl:v:18:y:2012:n:2:p:171-181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Montan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.fthm.uniri.hr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.