IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tei/journl/v10y2017i3p73-79.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial and fiscal crises, prices and EUR/USD rate of exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Slawomir I. Bukowski

    (Kazimierz Pulaski University of Technology and Humanities, Radom, Poland)

  • Joanna E. Bukowska

    (Kazimierz Pulaski University of Technology and Humanities, Radom, Poland)

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: How did the standard and non-standard ECB policy measures influence the price level and the EUR/USD rate of exchange in the period 2008 -2013? Design/methodology/approach: We formulated the following hypothesis: Depreciation of the Euro versus American dollar exchange rate occurred in the period of financial and fiscal crisis (2008-2014). The main reasons for that included: fiscal crisis in the euro area, implementation of standard and non–standard (quantitative easing) ECB monetary policy measures and growth of money supply in the euro area. In that period, the economically and statistically significant impacts of money supply aggregate M2 and differences between interest rates and rates of inflation in the euro area and USA on changes in EUR/USD rate of exchange were noted. For verification of our hypothesis we used econometric modeling - model of regression estimated using the GARCH (0.1), using the monthly data for the period 1999:01-2013:12. Results of our research confirmed the hypothesis formulated by us. Findings: Our study confirmed the formulated hypothesis; the EBC monetary policy, both standard and non-standard, in the years 2008-2014 had a significant effect on the EUR/USD exchange rate, contributing largely to the depreciation of the euro in the same period. Research limitations/implications: The same method of research could be applied to other cases of currency area and central bank monetary policy. Originality/value: The results support the existence of statistically and economically significant impact of central bank policy on the rate of exchange, by the expansion of money supply, changes of differences between interest rates and rates of inflation inside and outside the currency rate area. Those results confirm conclusion formulated based on the theory of interest rate parity and assets theory of currency rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Slawomir I. Bukowski & Joanna E. Bukowska, 2017. "Financial and fiscal crises, prices and EUR/USD rate of exchange," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 10(3), pages 73-79, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:10:y:2017:i:3:p:73-79
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ijbesar.af.duth.gr/docs/volume10_issue3/financial_fiscal_crises.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ijbesar.af.duth.gr/volume10_issue3.php
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1992. "Anatomy of a Financial Crisis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 115-130, August.
    2. A. Durre & N. Cassola & C. Holthausen, 2011. "Implementing monetary policy in crisis times: the case of the ECB," Post-Print hal-00833254, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Government Primož Pevcin, 2020. "Government Size and Quality of Governance: Does State Size Matter?," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 13(3), pages 7-14, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph Mason, 2001. "Do Lender of Last Resort Policies Matter? The Effects of Reconstruction Finance Corporation Assistance to Banks During the Great Depression," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 77-95, September.
    2. Hernando Vargas Herrera & Dpto de Estabilidad Financiera, 2006. "El Riesgo de Mercado de la Deuda Pública: ¿Una Restricción a la Política Monetaria? El Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 382, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Philipp Hartman & Frank Smets, 2018. "The European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy during Its First 20 Years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 1-146.
    4. Alain Durré, 2013. "Politique économique mixte et chocs asymétriques : le cas de la zone euro," Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 67-82.
    5. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
    6. John S. Jordan & Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren, 1999. "Impact of greater bank disclosure amidst a banking crisis," Working Papers 99-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. Stockman, Alan C., 1999. "Choosing an exchange-rate system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 1483-1498, October.
    8. Isik, Ihsan & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2003. "Financial disruption and bank productivity: The 1994 experience of Turkish banks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 291-320.
    9. Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva & Adriana Soares Sales & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2013. "Financial stability in Brazil," Chapters, in: Andreas Dombret & Otto Lucius (ed.), Stability of the Financial System, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Negrea, Bogdan, 2014. "A statistical measure of financial crises magnitude," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 397(C), pages 54-75.
    11. Martin Dufwenberg, 2014. "Banking on Experiments?," Working Papers 534, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Fischer, Justina A.V., 2012. "The choice of domestic policies in a globalized economy: Extended Version," MPRA Paper 37816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Tassos Anastasatos & Constantina Manou, 2008. "Speculative Attacks on the Drachma and the Changeover to the Euro," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 31, pages 49-77, November.
    15. Jacques Le Cacheux & Antoine Magnier, 1993. "Réglementation bancaire et stabilité des systèmes financiers européens dans la perspective de l'UEM," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 262(1), pages 63-74.
    16. Antonio Forte & Giovanni Pesce, 2009. "The International Financial Crisis Viewed by Experts," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(1‐2), pages 67-95, February.
    17. Beaupain, Renaud & Durré, Alain, 2013. "Central bank reserves and interbank market liquidity in the euro area," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 259-284.
    18. Petrella, Giovanni & Resti, Andrea, 2017. "What drives the liquidity of sovereign bonds when markets are under stress? An assessment of the new Basel 3 rules on bank liquid assets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 297-310.
    19. Tassos G. Anastasatos & Ian R. Davidson, 2006. "How Homogenous are Currency Crises? A Panel Study Using Multiple-Response Models," Working Papers 52, Bank of Greece.
    20. Saleh, Emad Alchikh, 2023. "The effects of economic and financial crises on FDI: A literature review," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; fiscal crisis; rate of exchange; econometric model; GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:10:y:2017:i:3:p:73-79. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kostas Stergidis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbikagr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.