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An alternative mean reversion test for interest rates

Author

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  • Ozgur Ozel
  • Deniz Ilalan

Abstract

A number of empirical studies assert that interest rates are governed by unit root processes rejecting any form of reversion to a long term mean by resorting to certain tests, among which the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) is the most widely used one. In this study, we propose an alternative testing methodology that can be applied along with ADF test, in the sense that there are times where it can capture stationarity when the other fails to do so. Moreover, our test has more power than ADF test. As an application to real-data, we consider 10-year US and Turkish T-bond rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozgur Ozel & Deniz Ilalan, 2018. "An alternative mean reversion test for interest rates," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 18(1), pages 35-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:18:y:2018:i:1:p:35-39
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    File URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/central-bank-review/vol/18/issue/1
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    Cited by:

    1. Ekin Ayse Ozsuca Erenoglu & Elif Oznur Acar, 2020. "Can US Wage Increases be Regarded as a Leading Indicator for Bond Rates?," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 169-176, December.

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