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Can US Wage Increases be Regarded as a Leading Indicator for Bond Rates?

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Listed:
  • Ekin Ayse Ozsuca Erenoglu

    (Department of Economics, Cankaya University)

  • Elif Oznur Acar

    (Department of Economics, Cankaya University)

Abstract

After the subprime meltdown, the Federal Reserve focused its attention on US non-farm payroll data in order to pave the way for its fund rate hikes. As time went by, the Federal Reserve deemed particularly one sub-component of this data, namely the increments on average weekly wage growth as a proxy for inflation and thus a plausible explanation for raising the interest rates. In that aspect, we decide to elaborate on this issue further and examine whether this implemented strategy indeed had a reflection in the real market. For doing so, we intend to determine whether there is any causality relation in either direction between US average weekly wage increases and 10-year Treasury Bond rates. We utilize the Toda-Yamamoto causality approach and come up with a statistically significant result between wages and bond rates. For robustness, we also consider the unemployment rate and consumption expenditures as independent variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekin Ayse Ozsuca Erenoglu & Elif Oznur Acar, 2020. "Can US Wage Increases be Regarded as a Leading Indicator for Bond Rates?," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 169-176, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ana:journl:v:6:y:2020:i:2:p:169-176
    DOI: 10.22440/wjae.6.2.5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage increases; Bond rates; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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