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A Counterfactual Study of the Charge of the Light Brigade

Author

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  • David Connors
  • Michael J. Armstrong
  • John Bonnett

Abstract

Researchers use a mathematical model to perform a counterfactual study of the 1854 Charge of the Light Brigade. They first calibrate the model with historical data so that it reproduces the actual charge's outcome. They then adjust the model to see how that outcome might have changed if the Heavy Brigade had joined the charge and/or if the charge had targeted the Russian forces on the heights instead of those in the valley. The results suggest that all the counterfactual attacks would have led to heavier British casualties. However, a charge by both brigades along the valley might plausibly have yielded a British victory.

Suggested Citation

  • David Connors & Michael J. Armstrong & John Bonnett, 2015. "A Counterfactual Study of the Charge of the Light Brigade," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 80-89, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:vhimxx:v:48:y:2015:i:2:p:80-89
    DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2014.979273
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James G. Taylor & Gerald G. Brown, 1983. "Annihilation Prediction for Lanchester-Type Models of Modern Warfare," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 752-771, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anelí Bongers & José L. Torres, 2017. "Revisiting the Battle of Midway: A counterfactual analysis," Working Papers 2017-01, Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center.
    2. Michael J. Armstrong & Steven E. Sodergren, 2015. "Refighting Pickett's Charge: Mathematical Modeling of the Civil War Battlefield," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1153-1168, December.

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