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The Valuation of Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefit Options in Variable Annuity Contracts and the Impact of Mortality Risk

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  • Gabriella Piscopo
  • Steven Haberman

Abstract

In light of the growing importance of the variable annuities market, in this paper we introduce a theoretical model for the pricing and valuation of guaranteed lifelong withdrawal benefit (GLWB) options embedded in variable annuity products. As the name suggests, this option offers a lifelong withdrawal guarantee; therefore, there is no limit on the total amount that is withdrawn over the term of the policy because if the account value becomes zero while the insured is still alive, he or she continues to receive the guaranteed amount annually until death. Any remaining account value at the time of death is paid to the beneficiary as a death benefit. We offer a specific framework to value the GLWB option in a market-consistent manner under the hypothesis of a static withdrawal strategy, according to which the withdrawal amount is always equal to the guaranteed amount. The valuation approach is based on the decomposition of the product into living and death benefits. The model makes use of the standard no-arbitrage models of mathematical finance, which extend the Black-Scholes framework to insurance contracts, assuming the fund follows a geometric Brownian motion and the insurance fee is paid, on an ongoing basis, as a proportion of the assets. We develop a sensitivity analysis, which shows how the value of the product varies with the key parameters, including the age of the policyholder at the inception of the contract, the guaranteed rate, the risk-free rate, and the fund volatility. We calculate the fair fee, using Monte Carlo simulations under different scenarios. We give special attention to the impact of mortality risk on the value of the option, using a flexible model of mortality dynamics, which allows for the possible perturbations by mortality shock of the standard mortality tables used by practitioners. Moreover, we evaluate the introduction of roll-up and step-up options and the effect of the decision to delay withdrawing. Empirical analyses are performed, and numerical results are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriella Piscopo & Steven Haberman, 2011. "The Valuation of Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefit Options in Variable Annuity Contracts and the Impact of Mortality Risk," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 59-76.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:uaajxx:v:15:y:2011:i:1:p:59-76
    DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2011.10597609
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, H. & Milevsky, M.A. & Salisbury, T.S., 2014. "Optimal initiation of a GLWB in a variable annuity: No Arbitrage approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 102-111.
    2. Steinorth, Petra & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2015. "Valuing variable annuities with guaranteed minimum lifetime withdrawal benefits," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 246-258.
    3. Hyounggun Song & Sung Kwon Han & Seung Hwan Jeong & Hee Soo Lee & Kyong Joo Oh, 2019. "Using Genetic Algorithms to Develop a Dynamic Guaranteed Option Hedge System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-12, July.
    4. Dai, Tian-Shyr & Yang, Sharon S. & Liu, Liang-Chih, 2015. "Pricing guaranteed minimum/lifetime withdrawal benefits with various provisions under investment, interest rate and mortality risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 364-379.
    5. Ignatieva, Katja & Song, Andrew & Ziveyi, Jonathan, 2016. "Pricing and hedging of guaranteed minimum benefits under regime-switching and stochastic mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 286-300.
    6. Fung, Man Chung & Ignatieva, Katja & Sherris, Michael, 2014. "Systematic mortality risk: An analysis of guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits in variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 103-115.
    7. Hsieh, Ming-hua & Wang, Jennifer L. & Chiu, Yu-Fen & Chen, Yen-Chih, 2018. "Valuation of variable long-term care Annuities with Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefits: A variance reduction approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 246-254.
    8. Nitu Sharma & S. Dharmaraja & Viswanathan Arunachalam, 2021. "A Time Series Framework for Pricing Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefit," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 1225-1261, December.
    9. Feng, Runhuan & Yi, Bingji, 2019. "Quantitative modeling of risk management strategies: Stochastic reserving and hedging of variable annuity guaranteed benefits," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 60-73.
    10. Bacinello, Anna Rita & Maggistro, Rosario & Zoccolan, Ivan, 2024. "Risk-neutral valuation of GLWB riders in variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-14.
    11. Forsyth, Peter & Vetzal, Kenneth, 2014. "An optimal stochastic control framework for determining the cost of hedging of variable annuities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 29-53.
    12. Parsiad Azimzadeh & Peter A. Forsyth, 2015. "The existence of optimal bang-bang controls for GMxB contracts," Papers 1502.05743, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2015.
    13. Forsyth, Peter A., 2020. "Optimal dynamic asset allocation for DC plan accumulation/decumulation: Ambition-CVAR," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 230-245.
    14. Guglielmo D’Amico & Shakti Singh & Dharmaraja Selvamuthu, 2023. "Analysis of fair fee in guaranteed lifelong withdrawal and Markovian health benefits," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 383-400, September.

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