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The Bid-rent Land Use Model of the simple, efficient, elegant, and effective model of land use and transportation

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  • Michael J. Clay
  • Arnold Valdez

Abstract

Integrated land use/transportation forecasting models add significant policy and infrastructure alternatives analysis capabilities to the urban planning process. The financial, time, and staff requirements to develop these models has put them beyond the reach of most small to medium sized urban areas. This paper presents the land use allocation submodel of the Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective model of land use and transportation (SE3M), an integrated land use and transportation forecasting model founded upon Economic Base Theory and Bid-rent Theory. The Bid-rent Land Use Model (BLUM) is an agent based, spatial competition model utilizing unique utility curves for willingness to pay and incomes for budget constrained abilities to pay for each agent. The model structure, estimation, calibration, implementation, and validation are presented. With a single year of land use data available, the validation approach used the Kappa Index of Agreement to spatially check model outputs against base year control data while controlling for agreement by chance. The U.S. territory of Guam is used as the case study/proof of concept implementation for this model framework. Once calibrated, BLUM could solve the spatial competition problem on Guam in less than two minutes of processing time with over 90% accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Clay & Arnold Valdez, 2017. "The Bid-rent Land Use Model of the simple, efficient, elegant, and effective model of land use and transportation," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 449-464, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:40:y:2017:i:4:p:449-464
    DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2017.1300239
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Michael J. Clay, 2010. "Developing an integrated land-use/transportation model for small to medium-sized cities: case study of Montgomery, Alabama," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 679-693, September.
    4. Chang, Justin Sueun & Mackett, Roger Laurence, 2006. "A bi-level model of the relationship between transport and residential location," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 123-146, February.
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