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Coping with uncertainty: an expedition into the field of new transport technology

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  • Marina Van Geenhuizen
  • Peter Nijkamp

Abstract

Many decisions taken by mankind are rational only to a limited extent. This holds for individual travel behaviour, but also for long-range strategic decisions on transport systems or transport technology. In any decision problem, coping with uncertainty is the most critical element. The introduction of new transport technology is surrounded by uncertainty. For example, there is uncertainty about the pace and extent of adoption of new technology and there is uncertainty about the impact of new technology in terms of increased sustainability or increased efficiency. This article maps uncertainty surrounding new transport technology and identifies ways in which to deal with uncertainty in policy making. The findings will be illustrated with electric vehicles, particularly with two specific strategies to deal with uncertainty: interactive technology watching and experimentation in a market niche. The paper concludes with a discussion of success factors that influence the outcomes of such strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Van Geenhuizen & Peter Nijkamp, 2003. "Coping with uncertainty: an expedition into the field of new transport technology," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 449-467, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:26:y:2003:i:6:p:449-467
    DOI: 10.1080/0308106032000167355
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Nijkamp & Hans Ouwersloot & Sytze A. Rienstra, 1997. "Sustainable Urban Transport Systems: An Expert-based Strategic Scenario Approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 34(4), pages 693-712, April.
    2. Walker, Warren E. & Rahman, S. Adnan & Cave, Jonathan, 2001. "Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 282-289, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sestino, Andrea & Peluso, Alessandro M. & Amatulli, Cesare & Guido, Gianluigi, 2022. "Let me drive you! The effect of change seeking and behavioral control in the Artificial Intelligence-based self-driving cars," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L90 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - General
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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