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Identifying the precursors of vulnerability in agricultural value chains: A system dynamics approach

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  • Joshua Aboah
  • Mark M.J. Wilson
  • Kathryn Bicknell
  • Karl M. Rich

Abstract

Conventional approaches for assessing supply chain vulnerability do not capture endogenous disruptions emanating from chain actors’ decisions that might increase value chain vulnerability. These approaches adopt a reactive analytical explanation of vulnerability, rather than one that considers issues of feedback effects. To address this issue, this paper adopts a system dynamics modelling approach to identify the precursors of vulnerabilities in Ghana’s cocoa value chain. The paper assesses the vulnerability levels of the cocoa value chain by adjusting the baseline values of several key parameters that can be influenced by chain actors. Results of the sensitivity analyses indicate that the precursors of vulnerability situated upstream of the cocoa value chain have varying impacts on chain vulnerability, but the same magnitude of effect on the vulnerability levels of chain actors. However, precursors of vulnerability that are situated midstream of the cocoa value chain have an unequal magnitude of effect on the vulnerability levels of chain actors. Results suggest that policies governing cocoa trading can become countervailing factors that obstruct the government’s call for upgrading along the cocoa value chain. The system dynamics model presented here enables a proactive assessment of vulnerability which can facilitate collaborative planning among stakeholders in the value chain.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aboah & Mark M.J. Wilson & Kathryn Bicknell & Karl M. Rich, 2021. "Identifying the precursors of vulnerability in agricultural value chains: A system dynamics approach," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(3), pages 683-701, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tprsxx:v:59:y:2021:i:3:p:683-701
    DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2019.1704592
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    Cited by:

    1. Hongyu Wang & Xiaolei Wang & Apurbo Sarkar & Lu Qian, 2021. "Evaluating the Impacts of Smallholder Farmer’s Participation in Modern Agricultural Value Chain Tactics for Facilitating Poverty Alleviation—A Case Study of Kiwifruit Industry in Shaanxi, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Lipeng Li & Apurbo Sarkar & Xi Zhou & Xiuling Ding & Hua Li, 2022. "Influence and Action Mechanisms of Governmental Relations Embeddedness for Fostering Green Production Demonstration Household: Evidence from Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Anhui Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-25, September.
    3. Wanglin Ma & Awal Abdul‐Rahaman & Gazali Issahaku, 2023. "Welfare implications of participating in agri‐value chains among vegetable farmers in Northern Ghana," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 793-811, July.
    4. Jing Mu & Jing Li & Yaze Li & Chao Liu, 2021. "The Dynamics of Brand-Driven Quality Improvement Decision-Making in Multi-Small-Supplier Agri-Food Supply Chain: The Case of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Aboah, Joshua & Setsoafia, Edinam Dope, 2022. "Examining the synergistic effect of cocoa-plantain intercropping system on gross margin: A system dynamics modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).

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