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Fuzzy belief propagation in constrained Bayesian networks with application to maintenance decisions

Author

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  • Ke Wang
  • Yan Yang
  • Jian Zhou
  • Mark Goh

Abstract

Bayesian networks have been widely applied to domains such as medical diagnosis, fault analysis, and preventative maintenance. In some applications, because of insufficient data and the complexity of the system, fuzzy parameters and additional constraints derived from expert knowledge can be used to enhance the Bayesian reasoning process. However, very few methods are capable of handling the belief propagation in constrained fuzzy Bayesian networks (CFBNs). This paper therefore develops an improved approach which addresses the inference problem through a max-min programming model. The proposed approach yields more reasonable inference results and with less computational effort. By integrating the probabilistic inference drawn from diverse sources of information with decision analysis considering a decision-maker's risk preference, a CFBN-based decision framework is presented for seeking optimal maintenance decisions in a risk-based environment. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is validated based on an application to a gas compressor maintenance decision problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Ke Wang & Yan Yang & Jian Zhou & Mark Goh, 2020. "Fuzzy belief propagation in constrained Bayesian networks with application to maintenance decisions," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(9), pages 2885-2903, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:tprsxx:v:58:y:2020:i:9:p:2885-2903
    DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2020.1715503
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    Cited by:

    1. Somayyeh Shahraki Dehsoukhteh & Mostafa Razmkhah & Bruno Castanier, 2024. "Optimal block replacement based on expert judgement method," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 238(3), pages 591-603, June.

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