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A quantitative and simulation model for managing sudden supply delay with fuzzy demand and safety stock

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  • Sanjoy Kumar Paul
  • Shams Rahman

Abstract

In this paper, a recovery model is developed for managing sudden supply delays that affect retailers’ economic order quantity model. For this, a mathematical model is developed that considers fuzzy demand and safety stock, and generates a recovery plan for a finite future period immediately after a sudden supply delay. An efficient heuristic solution is developed that generates the recovery plan after a sudden supply delay. An experiment with scenario-based analysis is conducted to test our heuristic and to analyse the results. To assess the quality and consistency of solutions, the performance of the proposed heuristic is compared with the performance of the generalised reduced gradient method, which is widely applied in constrained mathematical programming. A simulation model is also designed to bring the recovery model closer to real-world processes. Several numerical examples are presented and a sensitivity analysis is performed to demonstrate the effects of various parameters on the performance of the heuristic method. The results show that safety stock plays an important role in recovery from sudden supply delays, and there is a trade-off between backorder and lost sales costs in the recovery plan. With the help of the proposed model, supply chain decision-makers can make accurate and prompt decision regarding recovery plans in case of sudden supply delay.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjoy Kumar Paul & Shams Rahman, 2018. "A quantitative and simulation model for managing sudden supply delay with fuzzy demand and safety stock," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(13), pages 4377-4395, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tprsxx:v:56:y:2018:i:13:p:4377-4395
    DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2017.1412528
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    Cited by:

    1. Qing Zhang & Weiguo Fan & Jianchang Lu & Siqian Wu & Xuechao Wang, 2021. "Research on Dynamic Analysis and Mitigation Strategies of Supply Chains under Different Disruption Risks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-29, February.
    2. Mao Zheng & Ningning Cui & Yibin Zhang & Fangfang Zhang & Victor Shi, 2023. "Inventory Policies and Supply Chain Coordination under Logistics Route Disruption Risks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, June.
    3. Paul, Sanjoy Kumar & Chowdhury, Priyabrata & Moktadir, Md. Abdul & Lau, Kwok Hung, 2021. "Supply chain recovery challenges in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 316-329.
    4. Dmitry Ivanov, 2022. "Viable supply chain model: integrating agility, resilience and sustainability perspectives—lessons from and thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 319(1), pages 1411-1431, December.
    5. Md. Tarek Chowdhury & Aditi Sarkar & Sanjoy Kumar Paul & Md. Abdul Moktadir, 2022. "A case study on strategies to deal with the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic in the food and beverage industry," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 166-178, June.
    6. Ivanov, Dmitry & Dolgui, Alexandre, 2021. "OR-methods for coping with the ripple effect in supply chains during COVID-19 pandemic: Managerial insights and research implications," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    7. Rozhkov, Maxim & Ivanov, Dmitry & Blackhurst, Jennifer & Nair, Anand, 2022. "Adapting supply chain operations in anticipation of and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Sanjoy Kumar Paul & Ruhul Sarker & Daryl Essam & Paul Tae-Woo Lee, 2019. "A mathematical modelling approach for managing sudden disturbances in a three-tier manufacturing supply chain," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 280(1), pages 299-335, September.
    9. Sanjoy Kumar Paul & Priyabrata Chowdhury, 2020. "Strategies for Managing the Impacts of Disruptions During COVID-19: an Example of Toilet Paper," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 21(3), pages 283-293, September.
    10. Aldrighetti, Riccardo & Battini, Daria & Ivanov, Dmitry & Zennaro, Ilenia, 2021. "Costs of resilience and disruptions in supply chain network design models: A review and future research directions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).

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