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The multi-country transmission of sovereign and banking risk: a spatial vector autoregressive approach

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  • Bing Zhu

Abstract

This paper develops a spatial vector autoregressive (SpVAR) model to investigate the transmission of sovereign, banking and corporate default risks among 11 Eurozone countries for the period January 2008–December 2013. The results show that a significant proportion of default risk variation is explained by foreign shocks. However, the cross-border sovereign–bank nexus is statistically significant, but economically moderate. Among the three sectors, shocks to the banking sector play the most critical role. On average, for the 11 countries, a foreign banking shock can explain 7%, 23% and 18% of the forecast error variance of changes in sovereign, banking and corporate credit default swap spreads respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Bing Zhu, 2018. "The multi-country transmission of sovereign and banking risk: a spatial vector autoregressive approach," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 422-441, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:13:y:2018:i:4:p:422-441
    DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2018.1473890
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    Cited by:

    1. Capasso, Salvatore & D'Uva, Marcella & Fiorelli, Cristiana & Napolitano, Oreste, 2023. "Cross-border Italian sovereign risk transmission in EMU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Bales, Stephan, 2022. "Sovereign and bank dependence in the eurozone: A multi-scale approach using wavelet-network analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar M. Valencia, 2023. "Risk spillovers between global corporations and Latin American sovereigns: global factors matter," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(13), pages 1477-1496, March.
    4. Acedański, Jan & Karkowska, Renata, 2022. "Instability spillovers in the banking sector: A spatial econometrics approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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