Policy confidence in crises: an examination across waves of the COVID-19 pandemic

The prolonged COVID−19 pandemic has given governments the challenge of increasing policy effect certainties while tackling uncertainties derived from the crisis. This research investigates the policy learning that occurred across the waves by specifically focusing on South Korea’s policy implementations directed at healthcare facility management, including practitioners, during the pandemic. To empirically analyze the government’s prompt response to changing COVID−19 situations, a text analysis of the official government briefings and a semi-structured interview were conducted. The results show that the government may have gained confidence in their policy decision and implemented policies more decisively in the later waves despite the surge of COVID−19 cases. Our findings provide an example of an uncertainty-certainty mechanism in a crisis that explains a relationship between policy learning and confidence. We also suggest capabilities that enable governments to enhance policy effects and cope with uncertainties.