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Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Klabunde
  • Sabine Zinn
  • Frans Willekens
  • Matthias Leuchter

Abstract

We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Klabunde & Sabine Zinn & Frans Willekens & Matthias Leuchter, 2017. "Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(0), pages 51-67, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:0:p:51-67
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1350281
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriele De Luca & Thomas J. Lampoltshammer & Shahanaz Parven & Johannes Scholz, 2022. "A Literature Review on the Usage of Agent-Based Modelling to Study Policies for Managing International Migration," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-32, August.
    2. Tom Warnke & Oliver Reinhardt & Anna Klabunde & Frans Willekens & Adelinde M. Uhrmacher, 2017. "Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(0), pages 69-83, October.
    3. Furkan Gursoy & Bertan Badur, 2021. "An Agent-Based Modelling Approach to Brain Drain," Papers 2103.03234, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.

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