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The boundaries of genocide: Quantifying the uncertainty of the death toll during the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia (1975-79)

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  • Patrick Heuveline

Abstract

The range of estimates of excess deaths under Pol Pot's rule of Cambodia (1975-79) is too wide to be useful: they range from under 1 to over 3 million, with the more plausible estimates still varying from 1 to 2 million. By stochastically reconstructing population dynamics in Cambodia from extant historical and demographic data, we produced interpretable distributions of the death toll and other demographic indicators. The resulting 95 per cent simulation interval (1.2-2.8 million excess deaths) demonstrates substantial uncertainty over the exact scale of mortality, yet it still excludes nearly half of the previous death-toll estimates. The 1.5-2.25 million interval contains 69 per cent of the simulations for the actual number of excess deaths, more than the wider (1-2 million) range of previous plausible estimates. The median value of 1.9 million excess deaths represents 21 per cent of the population at risk. Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1045546

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  • Patrick Heuveline, 2015. "The boundaries of genocide: Quantifying the uncertainty of the death toll during the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia (1975-79)," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(2), pages 201-218, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:2:p:201-218
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1045546
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    Cited by:

    1. Gilles Pison & Bruno Masquelier & Almamy Malick Kante & Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye & Laetitia Douillot & Géraldine Duthé & Cheikh Sokhna & Valerie Delaunay & Stephane Helleringer, 2018. "Estimating mortality from external causes using data from retrospective surveys: A validation study in Niakhar (Senegal)," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(32), pages 879-896.
    2. Patrick Heuveline, 2022. "Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End‐of‐2021 Assessment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 31-50, March.
    3. Patrick Heuveline & Angela K. Clague, 2024. "Parental Loss and Mental Health in Post-Khmer-Rouge Cambodia," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-18, August.

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