Public opinion toward Russia’s war against Ukraine: investigating wartime attitudes in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan

How have Central Asian publics reacted to Russia’s war against Ukraine? This study assesses overall attitudes toward the war in Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic using survey data from the early days of the war. We find that respondents in Kyrgyzstan are more likely to hold pro-Russian attitudes regarding the war than their counterparts in Kazakhstan. We then examine the relationship between political attitudes and correlates commonly linked to geopolitical preferences generally and pro-Russian attitudes specifically: ethnolinguistic identity, remittances, and media use. Results suggest that ethnic identity holds the strongest and most consistent link to wartime sentiments, with ethnic Kyrgyz and Kazakhs showing less pro-Russian attitudes compared to ethnic Russians. Further results indicate that language and media use are somewhat associated with pro-Russian wartime attitudes, though this relationship varies by context and issue area. Finally, we find limited support for the argument that receiving remittances is associated with political preferences.