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Terrorist attacks and public approval of the Russian president: evidence from time series analysis

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  • Igor Fedotenkov

Abstract

This article applies time series analysis to examine weekly data on Vladimir Putin’s approval rating and their dependence on terrorist attacks. I find that minor terrorist attacks with few or no fatalities in Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan increase Putin’s ratings, while major terrorist attacks, with more than four fatalities, have a negative impact. There is also evidence that terrorist attacks in other Russian regions reduce Putin’s public approval; however, this evidence is weaker and depends on the model specification. Furthermore, I control for main annual media events with President Putin’s participation: the television Q&A program “Direct Line with V. Putin,” Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly, and a large annual press conference. All three media events increase the president’s approval, with Direct Line having the least effect.

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  • Igor Fedotenkov, 2020. "Terrorist attacks and public approval of the Russian president: evidence from time series analysis," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 159-170, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpsaxx:v:36:y:2020:i:2:p:159-170
    DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2019.1707566
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    Cited by:

    1. Margit Bussmann & Natalia Iost, 2024. "Presidential popularity and international crises: an assessment of the rally-‘round-the-flag effect in Russia," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 105-118, March.
    2. Janet Elise Johnson & Alexandra Novitskaya & Valerie Sperling & Lisa McIntosh Sundstrom, 2021. "Mixed signals: what Putin says about gender equality," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 507-525, November.

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