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On the Determinants of Democratic Transitions

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  • Caroline Freund
  • Melise Jaud

Abstract

90 countries have changed regimes in the last half century. Of these, 46% experienced a successful transition to democracy, 39% failed, and 15% moved gradually to democracy. In this paper, we explore the initial conditions associated with transition and with its success. We find that gender equality, natural resources, conflict, a military government, and urbanization significantly affect the likelihood of regime change and the durability of democracy. Contagion effects from experiences in neighboring countries are also important determinants of success. The results offer insights into what we can expect from the ongoing transitions in the Middle East and North Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Caroline Freund & Melise Jaud, 2013. "On the Determinants of Democratic Transitions," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1350005-131, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:1:p:1350005-1-1350005-30
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Freund, Caroline & Jaud, Melise, 2013. "Regime Change, Democracy and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 9282, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nouha Bougharriou & Walid Benayed & Foued Badr Gabsi, 2016. "On the determinants of democracy in the Arab World," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(59), pages 25-42, March.
    2. Freund, Caroline & Jaud, Melise, 2013. "Regime Change, Democracy and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 9282, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Mohamad Al-Ississ & Ishac Diwan, 2016. "Preference for Democracy in the Arab World," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(4), pages 16-26.

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    JEL classification:

    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

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