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Could We Have Predicted the Recent Downturn in Home Sales in the Four U.S. Census Regions?

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  • Rangan Gupta
  • Christian Tipoy
  • Sonali Das

Abstract

This paper analyzes the ability of various models to forecast home sales in the four Census regions in the United States. We also use the models to predict the downturn in home sales in these regions over the 2004:Q4 to 2009:Q2 period. The findings reveal that, barring the South, there always exists a Bayesian model, which tends to outperform all other models in forecasting home sales over the out-of-sample horizon. In addition, when we expose our classical and 'optimal' Bayesian forecast models to predicting the peaks and declines in home sales, we find that barring the South again, the models did reasonably well in predicting the turning point exactly at 2005:Q3 or with a lead.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta & Christian Tipoy & Sonali Das, 2010. "Could We Have Predicted the Recent Downturn in Home Sales in the Four U.S. Census Regions?," Journal of Housing Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 111-128, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjrhxx:v:19:y:2010:i:2:p:111-128
    DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2010.12092026
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    Cited by:

    1. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos, 2015. "Forecasting the U.S. real house price index," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 259-267.
    2. Yin, Xiao-Cui & Li, Xin & Wang, Min-Hui & Qin, Meng & Shao, Xue-Feng, 2021. "Do economic policy uncertainty and its components predict China's housing returns?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices," Working Papers 201233, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Charles Rahal, 2015. "Housing Market Forecasting with Factor Combinations," Discussion Papers 15-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    5. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-473 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Charles Rahal, 2015. "Housing Market Forecasting with Factor Combinations," Discussion Papers 15-05r, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Abebe Beyene & Rangan Gupta & Monaheng Seleteng, 2013. "‘Ripple’ Effects in South African House Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(5), pages 876-894, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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