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Investor Rationality: An Analysis of NCREIF Commercial Property Data

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  • Patric Hendershott
  • Bryan MacGregor

Abstract

National Council of Real Estate Fiduciaries multiple listing service level cash flows and panels of capitalization rates or industrial, office and retail properties over the last two decades are examined in this study. Real NOI 5-year future growth is shown to be negatively related to deviations of current real NOI from trend. Given this trend reversion in real cash flows, investor rationality requires that income multipliers be low (capitalization rates be high) when real cash flows are above trend and visa versa. In the panel estimates, the opposite is seen to be the case. Whether this is due to questionable data or irrational behavior is uncertain.

Suggested Citation

  • Patric Hendershott & Bryan MacGregor, 2005. "Investor Rationality: An Analysis of NCREIF Commercial Property Data," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 445-476, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjerxx:v:27:y:2005:i:4:p:445-476
    DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2005.12091167
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John M. Quigley, 1999. "Real Estate Prices and Economic Cycles," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 1-20.
    2. Robert E. Hall, 2001. "Struggling to Understand the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 1-11, May.
    3. Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Rental Adjustment and Valuation in Overbuilt Markets: Evidence from the Sydney Office Market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 51-67, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Hoesli & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2008. "The Inflation Hedging Characteristics of US and UK Investments: A Multi-Factor Error Correction Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 183-206, February.
    2. Alain Chaney & Martin Hoesli, 2015. "Transaction-Based and Appraisal-Based Capitalization Rate Determinants," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 1-43.
    3. Devaney, Steven & Livingstone, Nicola & McAllister, Pat & Nanda, Anupam, 2019. "Capitalization rates and transaction activity in international office markets: A global perspective," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    4. Patric Hendershott & Maarten Jennen & Bryan MacGregor, 2013. "Modeling Space Market Dynamics: An Illustration Using Panel Data for US Retail," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 659-687, November.
    5. Jinliang Li & Robert M. Mooradian & Shiawee X. Yang, 2009. "The Information Content of the NCREIF Index," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(1), pages 93-116.
    6. Jim Clayton & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 5-37, January.
    7. Steffen Heinig & Anupam Nanda & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2016. "Which Sentiment Indicators Matter? An Analysis of the European Commercial Real Estate Market," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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