Just War and Likelihood of Success: Wars of Necessity vs. Wars of Choice

This article makes an argument about the right place of the likelihood of success principle in just war thinking. Its analysis is grounded in a neoclassical reading of just war that is applied to the ongoing Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. The article starts with an exploration of the status of the likelihood of success principle in contemporary just war thinking. Noting that the difficulty of applying this principle has been pointed out by various thinkers, the chapter adapts the distinction between the so-called deontological and prudential just war principles found in neoclassical just war thinking. This distinction holds that the deontological principles hold primary importance within the logic of just war, and the prudential principles, including likelihood of success, are of secondary importance only. The article continues with an assessment of the practical implications of this distinction by applying it to two different types of warfare, namely so-called “wars of necessity” and “wars of choice.”