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Financial cointegration and spillover effect of global financial crisis: a study of emerging Asian financial markets

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  • Saqib Gulzar
  • Ghulam Mujtaba Kayani
  • Hui Xiaofeng
  • Usman Ayub
  • Amir Rafique

Abstract

This paper examines the financial cointegration and spillover effect of the global financial crisis to emerging Asian financial markets (India, China, Pakistan, Malaysia, Russia and Korea). The analysis used daily stock returns, divided into three time periods: pre-, during and post-crisis from 1 July 2005 to 30 June 2015. We applied the Johansen and Juselius cointegration test, the vector error correction model (V.E.C.M.) and the G.A.R.C.H.-B.E.K.K. model for an examination of integration and conditional volatility. We find long-term cointegration between the U.S. market and emerging stock markets, and the level of cointegration increased after the crisis period. The V.E.C.M. and impulse response function reveal that a shock in the U.S. financial market has a short-term impact on the returns of emerging financial markets. Past shocks and volatility have more effect on the selected stock markets during all time periods. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index and the Bombay stock exchange (B.S.E.) are the only stock markets that have cross-market news and volatility spillover effects during the crisis period. After the crisis period, news effects are positive on the B.S.E. and the Russian Trading System and have a negative effecton the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Suggested Citation

  • Saqib Gulzar & Ghulam Mujtaba Kayani & Hui Xiaofeng & Usman Ayub & Amir Rafique, 2019. "Financial cointegration and spillover effect of global financial crisis: a study of emerging Asian financial markets," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 187-218, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:reroxx:v:32:y:2019:i:1:p:187-218
    DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2018.1550001
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    Cited by:

    1. Miklesh Prasad Yadav & Sudhi Sharma & Indira Bhardwaj, 2023. "Volatility Spillover Between Chinese Stock Market and Selected Emerging Economies: A Dynamic Conditional Correlation and Portfolio Optimization Perspective," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(2), pages 427-444, June.
    2. Mbarki, Imen & Omri, Abdelwahed & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2022. "From sentiment to systemic risk: Information transmission in Asia-Pacific stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Hüseyin Temiz & Merve Acar, 2023. "Board gender diversity and corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosure in different disclosure environments," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 2247-2264, September.
    4. Gan, Xiaojun & Hu, Pei, 2023. "Managerial ability and stock price synchronicity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Ghulam Mujtaba & Asima Siddique & Nader Naifar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2024. "Hedge and safe haven role of commodities for the US and Chinese equity markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2381-2414, April.

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