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Inflation volatility: an Asian perspective

Author

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  • Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi
  • Bushra Naqvi
  • Christian Bordes
  • Nawazish Mirza

Abstract

For the quarterly data of 10 Asian economies, ranging from the first quarter of 1991 to last quarter of 2012, we model inflation volatility as a time varying process through different symmetric and asymmetric GARCH specifications. We also propose to model inflation volatility on the basis of cyclic component of inflation obtained from an Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter instead of actual inflation when the latter does not fulfil the criterion of stationarity. Through news impact curves (NICs) we tried to highlight the behaviour of inflation volatility in response to lagged inflation shocks under different GARCH specifications. In our results the leverage parameter shows the expected sign and is significant for almost all countries suggesting strong asymmetry in inflation volatility. The hyperbolic sign integral shape of NICs based on Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH (GJR-GARCH) highlights the importance of inflation stabilisation programmes particularly because of the subsequent evidence obtained in favour of bidirectional causality running between inflation and inflation volatility. There is also evidence in favour of the argument that a cyclic component of inflation obtained through an HP filter could be used as a suitable proxy of inflation for volatility estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi & Bushra Naqvi & Christian Bordes & Nawazish Mirza, 2014. "Inflation volatility: an Asian perspective," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 280-303, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:reroxx:v:27:y:2014:i:1:p:280-303
    DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2014.952090
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    Cited by:

    1. Umar, Muhammad & Mirza, Nawazish & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Furqan, Mehreen, 2023. "Asymmetric volatility structure of equity returns: Evidence from an emerging market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 330-336.
    2. Naqvi, Bushra & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas, 2023. "Shanghai crude oil futures: Returns Independence, volatility asymmetry, and hedging potential," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. I. D. Medvedev, 2023. "Comparison of the Efficiency of Pure and of Hybrid Inflation Targeting from the Point of View of Inflation Control," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 274-283, April.
    4. Mirza, Nawazish & Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Boubaker, Sabri, 2023. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting regime under energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Mirza, Nawazish & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra & Umar, Muhammad, 2024. "Inflation prediction in emerging economies: Machine learning and FX reserves integration for enhanced forecasting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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