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Publication bias and genuine effects: the case of Granger causality between tourism and income

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  • Nino Fonseca
  • Marcelino Sánchez-Rivero

Abstract

Several studies have analysed the relationships between tourism and economic growth by means of tests of Granger causality. However, no consensus has been reached. In this paper our purpose is to synthesize the literature available through a meta-regression analysis. Our results suggest that there is evidence of publication bias and that the empirical effects reported in the literature are non-genuine. Concomitantly, we find that some methodological choices are positively or negatively correlated with the size of the empirical effects. Nevertheless, purged from publication bias, we confirm previous assertions that the variability of the empirical effects can be explained by the degree of tourism specialization, by the level of economic development and by the size of the countries analysed, even though, in some respects, in a different way than expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Nino Fonseca & Marcelino Sánchez-Rivero, 2020. "Publication bias and genuine effects: the case of Granger causality between tourism and income," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(9), pages 1084-1108, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rcitxx:v:23:y:2020:i:9:p:1084-1108
    DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2019.1585419
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    Cited by:

    1. Garrod Brian & Almeida António & Machado Luiz, 2023. "Modelling of nonlinear asymmetric effects of changes in tourism on economic growth in an autonomous small-island economy," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 154-172, December.
    2. Nikeel Nishkar Kumar & Arvind Patel & Sean Kimpton & Antony Andrews, 2022. "Asymmetric reactions in the tourism‐led growth hypothesis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 661-677, December.

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