Lessons and insights from the global productivity slowdown: A research management agenda

According to the Solow paradox, the impact of the computer age can be seen everywhere but in the productivity statistics. Despite much debate about productivity gains promised by technologies associated with the ‘fourth industrial revolution,’ these are largely yet to materialise. Paradoxically, not only has there been a global productivity growth slowdown but also a decline in research and development (R&D) productivity: a ‘burden of knowledge’ effect. Given the potentially catastrophic costs of research failure and the inability of the scientific discovery system to anticipate fully and find a solution to the coronavirus pandemic, the purpose of this paper is to apply a detailed conceptual review methodology to understand better the fundamental causes of the global productivity growth slowdown. Challenging prevailing assumptions in the literature, the original contribution of the paper is a theoretical analysis that suggests a root cause of the global production growth slowdown may be a burden of knowledge effect associated with innovation failure. A causal ordering of relevant causes is discussed, and hypotheses are derived. Implications are derived for research management, and for policy regarding how a decline in global productivity growth might be arrested by remedying the burden of knowledge effect.