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Real options maximizing survival probability under incomplete markets

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  • Jinglu Jiang
  • Congming Mu
  • Juan Peng
  • Jinqiang Yang

Abstract

By integrating the survival problem into the theory of real option valuation under incomplete markets, we analyze an entrepreneurial firm's optimal survival probability and the joint decisions of business investments and portfolio choices when the business investment opportunity has undiversifiable idiosyncratic risks. Based on the theory of stochastic control, we derive the semi-closed-form solutions for the firm's optimal survival probability, its investment thresholds and the implied option value. The results show that the goal of maximizing the survival probability greatly changes the entrepreneur's business investment strategies, the pattern of asset allocation and the correlation between the option value and the project risks. The comparative statics analysis shows that public authorities should subsidize entrepreneurs and maintain stabile financial markets in order to encourage entrepreneurship.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinglu Jiang & Congming Mu & Juan Peng & Jinqiang Yang, 2019. "Real options maximizing survival probability under incomplete markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 1921-1931, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:19:y:2019:i:11:p:1921-1931
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2019.1617891
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    Cited by:

    1. Niu, Yingjie & He, Linfeng & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Managerial compensation with hyperbolic discounting," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    2. Shi, Huihong & Mu, Congming & Yang, Jinqiang & Huang, Wenli, 2021. "A Sino-US comparative analysis of the hi-tech entrepreneurial model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 953-966.
    3. Fan Hu & Yaoyao Wu, 2023. "R&D investment under incomplete markets," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 858-861, March.
    4. Luo, Pengfei & Chen, Biao & Liu, Fengjun, 2020. "Growth option, debt maturity and cash reserves with bank-tax-interaction," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Ali Nasir & Ambreen Khursheed & Kazim Ali & Faisal Mustafa, 2021. "A Markov Decision Process Model for Optimal Trade of Options Using Statistical Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(2), pages 327-346, August.

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