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Predicting bankruptcy using the discrete-time semiparametric hazard model

Author

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  • K. F. Cheng
  • C. K. Chu
  • Ruey-Ching Hwang

Abstract

The usual bankruptcy prediction models are based on single-period data from firms. These models ignore the fact that the characteristics of firms change through time, and thus they may suffer from a loss of predictive power. In recent years, a discrete-time parametric hazard model has been proposed for bankruptcy prediction using panel data from firms. This model has been demonstrated by many examples to be more powerful than the traditional models. In this paper, we propose an extension of this approach allowing for a more flexible choice of hazard function. The new method does not require the assumption of a parametric model for the hazard function. In addition, it also provides a tool for checking the adequacy of the parametric model, if necessary. We use real panel datasets to illustrate the proposed method. The empirical results confirm that the new model compares favorably with the well-known discrete-time parametric hazard model.

Suggested Citation

  • K. F. Cheng & C. K. Chu & Ruey-Ching Hwang, 2010. "Predicting bankruptcy using the discrete-time semiparametric hazard model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 1055-1066.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:10:y:2010:i:9:p:1055-1066
    DOI: 10.1080/14697680902814274
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng Few Lee, 2020. "Financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and financial technology: an overall view," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1529-1578, May.
    2. Alam, Nurul & Gao, Junbin & Jones, Stewart, 2021. "Corporate failure prediction: An evaluation of deep learning vs discrete hazard models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Huimin Chung & Jiun-Yi Ku, 2013. "Predicting Recurrent Financial Distresses with Autocorrelation Structure: An Empirical Analysis from an Emerging Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 321-341, June.
    4. Christian Lohmann & Thorsten Ohliger, 2020. "Bankruptcy prediction and the discriminatory power of annual reports: empirical evidence from financially distressed German companies," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 137-172, February.
    5. Salwa Kessioui & Michalis Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2023. "A Bibliometric Overview of the State-of-the-Art in Bankruptcy Prediction Methods and Applications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Emilios Galariotis & Alexandros Garefalakis & Christos Lemonakis & Marios Menexiadis & Constantin Zo (ed.), Governance and Financial Performance Current Trends and Perspectives, chapter 6, pages 123-153, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Hwang, Ruey-Ching, 2012. "A varying-coefficient default model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 675-688.
    7. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Chih-Kang Chu, 2013. "Forecasting forward defaults: a simple hazard model with competing risks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 1467-1477, August.
    8. Christian Lohmann & Thorsten Ohliger, 2017. "Nonlinear Relationships and Their Effect on the Bankruptcy Prediction," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 18(3), pages 261-287, August.
    9. Dendramis, Y. & Tzavalis, E. & Adraktas, G., 2018. "Credit risk modelling under recessionary and financially distressed conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 160-175.
    10. Ligang Zhou & Kin Keung Lai, 2017. "AdaBoost Models for Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction with Missing Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(1), pages 69-94, June.
    11. Lohmann, Christian & Ohliger, Thorsten, 2024. "Predicting the cure of a defaulted company: Nonlinear relationships between loan-related variables and the cure probability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).

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