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Complexity Theory and Evaluation in Public Management

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  • Philip Haynes

Abstract

Complexity theory offers a systems based evaluative approach that places importance on holistic evaluation. Systems are seen as relatively unstable, but with some time periods that are stable. The theory provides some important metaphors for evaluating policy systems. The focus on whole systems, rates of change, evolving interactions and attractor states can be argued to be a radical methodology. This article explores an evaluative method where quantitative time series methods can aid the qualitative understanding of complex systems. Rates of change are proposed as key measures. A research example is given that describes the evolution of the policy of privatization and market managerialism of social care services in England. When compared to other models of public policy evaluation like punctuated equilibrium theory, complexity places more emphasis on the overall instability of the policy environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Haynes, 2008. "Complexity Theory and Evaluation in Public Management," Public Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 401-419, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pubmgr:v:10:y:2008:i:3:p:401-419
    DOI: 10.1080/14719030802002766
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    Cited by:

    1. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "Farm-household investment behaviour and the CAP decoupling: Methodological issues in assessing policy impacts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 127-145, January.
    2. Giovanni Esposito & Andrea Terlizzi, 2023. "Governing wickedness in megaprojects: discursive and institutional perspectives," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 42(2), pages 131-147.
    3. Walton, Mat, 2014. "Applying complexity theory: A review to inform evaluation design," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 119-126.
    4. Mingers, John & White, Leroy, 2010. "A review of the recent contribution of systems thinking to operational research and management science," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1147-1161, December.
    5. Yi Yang, 2021. "Critical realism and complexity theory: Building a nonconstructivist systems research framework for effective governance analysis," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 177-183, January.
    6. Chao Yang & Xianyin Meng, 2023. "A Fuzzy-Set Configurational Examination of Governance Capability under Certainty and Uncertainty Conditions: Evidence from the Chinese Provincial Cases of Early COVID-19 Containing Practice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-20, February.

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