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Can Russia Resettle the Far East?

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  • Vladimir Kontorovich

Abstract

Russian scholars, politicians and media have been alarmed by the declining population of the Far East, seeing it as a step towards eventual takeover of the region by China. This article shows that the progressive depopulation of the Far East is a reality and will continue in the coming decades. In addition to natural decline, the Far Eastern population will shrink faster than that of Russia because of net outmigration. Economic stagnation will keep migration from the South of the region at its present low rates. Recovery will increase mobility and allow the present deferred migrants to leave for European Russia. In the unlikely event that the Far East outperforms the rest of the country economically, it will attract migrants. However, any inflow is likely to be small because of the shrinking populations in European Russia and other ex-Soviet republics, and the competition for migrants from other parts of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Kontorovich, 2000. "Can Russia Resettle the Far East?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 365-384.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:12:y:2000:i:3:p:365-384
    DOI: 10.1080/14631370050173441
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hatton, T.J. & Williamson, J.G., 1992. "What Drove the Mass Migrations from Europe in the Late Ninteenth Century," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1614, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    2. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 150-154, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2011. "Russia : Reshaping Economic Geography," World Bank Publications - Reports 13052, The World Bank Group.
    2. Albrecht Kauffmann, 2013. "The Russian Urban System in Transition: The View of New Economic Geography," ERSA conference papers ersa13p280, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Mann, Stefan, 2006. "Population development in rural Switzerland: Do sectors matter?," Working Papers 30710, Agroscope Reckenholz Tanikon (ART).
    4. Katja Mueller & Michael J. Bradshaw, 2006. "OPTIMIRUS. Simulating Population Change in the Russian Far East," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 105-125, June.
    5. Mann, Stefan & Wustemann, Henry, 2008. "Multifunctionality and a new focus on externalities," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 293-307, February.

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