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Forecasting international tourist arrivals in formulating tourism strategies and planning: The case of Sri Lanka

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  • S.C. Thushara
  • Jen-Je Su
  • Jayatilleke S. Bandara

Abstract

In some developing countries, tourism-led growth strategy has been used to accelerate growth, generate employment opportunities and increase foreign exchange earnings. To maximise benefits from the tourism industry, appropriate policy decisions, infrastructure development and conducive business environments need to be developed. For that, accurate forecasting of international arrivals is vital. Tourism has been identified, as a driving force of post-war economic development in Sri Lanka. The main purpose of this study is to develop accurate forecasting models for total international arrivals in Sri Lanka and its top 10 source countries using SARIMA method. Monthly data from January 1984 to December 2016 were used as the training sample and data from January 2017 to December 2017 were used to evaluate the accuracy of the selected models. Results demonstrate that (a) achieving Sri Lankan Government’s forecast of four million tourist arrivals by 2020 is highly unlikely, (b) accurate forecasting is necessary for tourism strategies and planning, and (c) the SARIMA method provides accurate forecasts in the presence of seasonality. Finally, the findings in this study will be useful for government agencies and private establishments in the industry in their policymaking, designing promotional campaigns, and planning infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • S.C. Thushara & Jen-Je Su & Jayatilleke S. Bandara, 2019. "Forecasting international tourist arrivals in formulating tourism strategies and planning: The case of Sri Lanka," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1699884-169, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:7:y:2019:i:1:p:1699884
    DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2019.1699884
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    Cited by:

    1. István Egresi & Supun Lahiru Prakash & Buddhika Maduraperruma & Amila Withanage & Aruna Weerasingha & Ştefan Dezsi & Bianca Sorina Răcăşan, 2021. "What Affects Support for Wetland Tourism? A Case Study from Sri Lanka," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-18, August.
    2. Diunugala, Hemantha Premakumara & Mombeuil, Claudel, 2020. "Modeling and predicting foreign tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka: A comparison of three different methods," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 6(3), pages 3-13.
    3. Diunugala, Hemantha Premakumara & Mombeuil, Claudel, 2020. "Modeling and predicting foreign tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka: A comparison of three different methods," MPRA Paper 103779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Keerti Manisha & Inderpal Singh, 2024. "Forecasting of Indian and foreign tourist arrivals to Himachal Pradesh using Decomposition, Box–Jenkins, and Holt–Winters exponential smoothing methods," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 879-909, September.

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