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Labour supply in New Zealand and the 2010 tax and transfer changes

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  • John Creedy
  • Penny Mok

Abstract

This paper examines the simulated labour supply responses to the personal tax and transfer policy changes introduced in New Zealand in 2010, and the implications for revenue and income distribution. The main changes examined are the increase in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate from 12.5% to 15%, along with reductions in personal income tax rates and increases in the main benefit payments and assistance to families with children, to compensate for the rise in the GST. The simulated labour supply responses were obtained using the Treasury's behavioural microsimulation model, TaxWell-B. The 2009/10 Household Economic Survey was used. The combined effect of all policy changes is to increase average labour supply slightly for all demographic groups, with a weighted average increase of 0.10 hours per person. The average hours increase is the largest for single parents, at 0.33 hours per person. Labour force participation of sole parents is simulated to increase by 0.86 percentage points. In considering separate components, the change in income tax rates is found to have the largest effect on labour supply. This is not surprising, given that it affected a large proportion of the population while the changes to the benefit system and assistance to families with children apply only to certain groups. The reforms are found to be approximately distribution neutral, in terms of the Gini inequality measure of after-tax income per adult equivalent person.

Suggested Citation

  • John Creedy & Penny Mok, 2017. "Labour supply in New Zealand and the 2010 tax and transfer changes," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 60-78, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:51:y:2017:i:1:p:60-78
    DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2015.1136675
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Creedy & Angela Mellish, 2011. "Changes in the tax mix from income taxation to GST: Revenue and redistribution," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 299-309, May.
    2. Joseph Mercante & Penny Mok, 2014. "Estimation of wage equations for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/09, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Raj Chetty, 2012. "Bounds on Elasticities With Optimization Frictions: A Synthesis of Micro and Macro Evidence on Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 969-1018, May.
    4. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2006. "Income distribution in discrete hours behavioural microsimulation models: An illustration," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(1), pages 57-76, April.
    5. Joseph Mercante & Penny Mok, 2014. "Estimation of Labour Supply in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    6. John Creedy & Alan S. Duncan & Mark Harris & Rosanna Scutella, 2002. "Microsimulation Modelling of Taxation and the Labour Market," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2796.
    7. John Creedy, 2005. "An In‐Work Payment with an Hours Threshold: Labour Supply and Social Welfare," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(255), pages 367-377, December.
    8. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2007. "Confidence Intervals For Policy Reforms In Behavioural Tax Microsimulation Modelling," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 37-65, January.
    9. Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "New Zealand Labour Supply from 1991-2001: An Analysis Based on a Discrete Choice Structural Utility Model," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/23, New Zealand Treasury.
    10. repec:bla:ausecr:v:37:y:2004:i:2:p:230-241 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Arthur van Soest, 1995. "Structural Models of Family Labor Supply: A Discrete Choice Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 63-88.
    12. Penny Mok & Joseph Mercante, 2014. "Working for Families changes: The effect on labour supply in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/18, New Zealand Treasury.
    13. Robert Buckle, 2010. "Introduction: Tax policy reform New Zealand style," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 129-136.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kotamäki Mauri, 2016. "Participation Tax Rates in Finland, Earnedincome Tax Credit Investigated," Discussion Papers 107, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    2. Nolan, Matt, 2018. "Income Tax and Transfer Policy Changes in New Zealand: 1988-2013," Working Paper Series 20839, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    3. Gemmell, Norman, 2021. "Economic Lessons for Tax Policy Advisers," Working Paper Series 21109, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    4. Mauri Kotamäki & Joonas Ollonqvist, 2018. "Financial Incentives to Work Decomposed: The Finnish Case," Discussion Papers 119, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    5. John Creedy & Joseph Mercante & Penny Mok, 2018. "The Labour Market Effects of ‘Working for Families’ In New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(2), pages 211-231, June.
    6. Suzuki, Tomoya, 2021. "Basic income, wealth inequality and welfare: A proposed case in New Zealand," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 118-128.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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